Philip Morris Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| PM Stock | USD 177.88 0.71 0.40% |
Philip Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Philip Morris' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Philip Morris' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Philip Morris fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of Philip Morris' stock price is about 69 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Philip, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.131 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.8026 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.5466 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.3276 | Wall Street Target Price 180.375 |
Using Philip Morris hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Philip Morris International from the perspective of Philip Morris response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Philip Morris using Philip Morris' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Philip using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Philip Morris' stock price.
Philip Morris Short Interest
An investor who is long Philip Morris may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Philip Morris and may potentially protect profits, hedge Philip Morris with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 165.4247 | Short Percent 0.0125 | Short Ratio 3.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.6 M | 50 Day MA 159.455 |
Philip Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 182.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.33.Philip Morris Intern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Philip Morris' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Philip. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Philip can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Philip Morris International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Philip Morris' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Philip Morris.
Philip Morris Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
Philip Morris' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Philip Morris International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Philip Morris' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Philip Morris stock will not fluctuate a lot when Philip Morris' options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 182.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.33. Philip Morris after-hype prediction price | USD 178.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Philip contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Philip Morris International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Philip Morris trading at USD 177.88, that is roughly USD 0.0356 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Philip Morris' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Philip Morris International options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Philip Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Philip Morris' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Philip Morris' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Philip Morris stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Philip Morris' open interest, investors have to compare it to Philip Morris' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Philip Morris is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Philip. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Philip Morris Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Philip price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Philip using various technical indicators. When you analyze Philip charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Philip Morris Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 182.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.83, mean absolute percentage error of 11.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Philip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Philip Morris' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Philip Morris Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Philip Morris | Philip Morris Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Philip Morris Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Philip Morris' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Philip Morris' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 181.14 and 184.08, respectively. We have considered Philip Morris' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Philip Morris stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Philip Morris stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5375 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.8251 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0181 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 172.3298 |
Predictive Modules for Philip Morris
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Philip Morris Intern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Philip Morris After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Philip Morris at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Philip Morris or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Philip Morris, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Philip Morris Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Philip Morris' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Philip Morris' historical news coverage. Philip Morris' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 177.46 and 180.40, respectively. We have considered Philip Morris' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Philip Morris is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Philip Morris Intern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Philip Morris Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Philip Morris is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Philip Morris backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Philip Morris, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 1.47 | 0.48 | 0.11 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
177.88 | 178.93 | 0.27 |
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Philip Morris Hype Timeline
As of January 29, 2026 Philip Morris Intern is listed for 177.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.48, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Philip is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 178.93 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 112.21%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on Philip Morris is about 490.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 177.77. The company generated the yearly revenue of 37.88 B. Reported Net Income was 7.5 B with gross profit of 26.76 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris to cross-verify your projections.Philip Morris Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Philip Morris' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Philip Morris' future price movements. Getting to know how Philip Morris' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Philip Morris may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PEP | PepsiCo | (2.28) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.72 | (1.64) | 5.79 | |
| BTI | British American Tobacco | (0.17) | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.14 | 2.47 | (2.17) | 6.70 | |
| MO | Altria Group | (0.59) | 8 per month | 1.71 | (0.05) | 2.16 | (1.76) | 7.98 | |
| KO | The Coca Cola | 1.75 | 8 per month | 0.80 | 0.01 | 2.04 | (1.57) | 4.23 | |
| UL | Unilever PLC ADR | 0.86 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.89 | (1.81) | 8.92 | |
| BUD | Anheuser Busch Inbev | 0.49 | 10 per month | 0.80 | 0.11 | 2.23 | (1.55) | 4.71 | |
| PG | Procter Gamble | (0.69) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.84 | (1.56) | 5.66 | |
| UVV | Universal | (0.56) | 11 per month | 1.02 | 0.01 | 1.65 | (1.81) | 8.15 | |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands | (1.84) | 11 per month | 1.27 | 0.23 | 4.03 | (2.51) | 10.86 | |
| RLX | RLX Technology | 0.03 | 6 per month | 1.46 | (0.01) | 3.15 | (2.93) | 13.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for Philip Morris
For every potential investor in Philip, whether a beginner or expert, Philip Morris' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Philip Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Philip. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Philip Morris' price trends.Philip Morris Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Philip Morris stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Philip Morris could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Philip Morris by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Philip Morris Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Philip Morris stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Philip Morris shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Philip Morris stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Philip Morris International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Philip Morris Risk Indicators
The analysis of Philip Morris' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Philip Morris' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting philip stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Variance | 2.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Philip Morris
The number of cover stories for Philip Morris depends on current market conditions and Philip Morris' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Philip Morris is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Philip Morris' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Philip Morris Short Properties
Philip Morris' future price predictability will typically decrease when Philip Morris' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Philip Morris International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Philip Morris' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Philip Morris' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Will Tobacco sector continue expanding? Could Philip diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Philip Morris. Anticipated expansion of Philip directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Philip Morris data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.131 | Dividend Share 5.52 | Earnings Share 7 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
Philip Morris Intern's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Philip's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Philip Morris' intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Philip Morris' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Philip Morris' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Philip Morris should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Philip Morris' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.