Patriot National Stock Forward View
| PNBK Stock | USD 1.54 0.01 0.65% |
Patriot Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Patriot National's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Patriot National's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Patriot National fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Patriot National's share price is at 50 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Patriot National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Wall Street Target Price 24 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.175 |
Using Patriot National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Patriot National Bancorp from the perspective of Patriot National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Patriot National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.51. Patriot National after-hype prediction price | USD 1.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patriot National to cross-verify your projections. Patriot National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Patriot price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Patriot using various technical indicators. When you analyze Patriot charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Patriot National Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Patriot National's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-12-31 | Previous Quarter 187.6 M | Current Value 181 M | Quarterly Volatility 40.5 M |
Patriot National Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Patriot National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Patriot Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Patriot National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Patriot National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Patriot National | Patriot National Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Patriot National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Patriot National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Patriot National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.96, respectively. We have considered Patriot National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Patriot National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Patriot National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8631 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0575 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.5058 |
Predictive Modules for Patriot National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Patriot National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Patriot National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Patriot National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Patriot National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Patriot National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Patriot National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Patriot National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Patriot National's historical news coverage. Patriot National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 5.85, respectively. We have considered Patriot National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Patriot National is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Patriot National Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Patriot National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Patriot National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Patriot National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Patriot National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 4.31 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.54 | 1.54 | 0.00 |
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Patriot National Hype Timeline
Patriot National Bancorp is at this time traded for 1.54. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.08. Patriot is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.45%. %. The volatility of related hype on Patriot National is about 2462.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.62. About 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.88. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Patriot National Bancorp recorded a loss per share of 9.35. The entity last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2019. The firm had 1:10 split on the 4th of March 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patriot National to cross-verify your projections.Patriot National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Patriot National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Patriot National's future price movements. Getting to know how Patriot National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Patriot National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SBFG | SB Financial Group | 0.30 | 11 per month | 2.23 | 0.1 | 4.58 | (3.96) | 10.33 | |
| AFBI | Affinity Bancshares | (0.05) | 7 per month | 1.27 | 0.04 | 2.12 | (2.06) | 13.88 | |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp Common | (0.12) | 15 per month | 1.02 | 0.11 | 2.51 | (1.36) | 8.56 | |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.00 | (1.04) | 6.34 | |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp | (0.11) | 8 per month | 1.55 | (0.02) | 3.33 | (2.50) | 9.27 | |
| RMBI | Richmond Mutual Bancorporation | 0.78 | 20 per month | 1.22 | 0.04 | 3.33 | (2.55) | 7.33 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.81 | 0.16 | 2.05 | (1.48) | 5.78 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | 0.21 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.02 | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 | |
| BSBK | Bogota Financial Corp | 0.03 | 27 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.69 | (2.21) | 5.15 | |
| EBMT | Eagle Bancorp Montana | 0.62 | 7 per month | 0.98 | 0.25 | 3.06 | (1.80) | 7.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Patriot National
For every potential investor in Patriot, whether a beginner or expert, Patriot National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Patriot Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Patriot. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Patriot National's price trends.Patriot National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Patriot National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Patriot National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Patriot National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Patriot National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Patriot National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Patriot National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Patriot National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Patriot National Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Patriot National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Patriot National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Patriot National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting patriot stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Variance | 18.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Patriot National
The number of cover stories for Patriot National depends on current market conditions and Patriot National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Patriot National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Patriot National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Patriot National Short Properties
Patriot National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Patriot National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Patriot National Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Patriot National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Patriot National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 167.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patriot National to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Patriot National. Anticipated expansion of Patriot directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Patriot National assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Earnings Share (9.35) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.175 | Return On Assets |
Patriot National Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Patriot's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Patriot National's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Patriot National's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Patriot National's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Patriot National should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Patriot National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.