TheRealReal Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| REAL Stock | USD 14.42 0.00 0.00% |
TheRealReal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although TheRealReal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TheRealReal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TheRealReal fundamentals over time.
As of now, the value of RSI of TheRealReal's share price is approaching 47 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling TheRealReal, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0041 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0287 | Wall Street Target Price 18 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.06) |
Using TheRealReal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TheRealReal from the perspective of TheRealReal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards TheRealReal using TheRealReal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards TheRealReal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of TheRealReal's stock price.
TheRealReal Short Interest
An investor who is long TheRealReal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about TheRealReal and may potentially protect profits, hedge TheRealReal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.5942 | Short Percent 0.188 | Short Ratio 8.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 22.3 M | 50 Day MA 15.2098 |
TheRealReal Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TheRealReal on the next trading day is expected to be 14.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.97.TheRealReal Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to TheRealReal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TheRealReal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TheRealReal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TheRealReal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of TheRealReal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about TheRealReal.
TheRealReal Implied Volatility | 1.08 |
TheRealReal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TheRealReal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TheRealReal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TheRealReal stock will not fluctuate a lot when TheRealReal's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TheRealReal on the next trading day is expected to be 14.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.97. TheRealReal after-hype prediction price | USD 12.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
TheRealReal | Build AI portfolio with TheRealReal Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current TheRealReal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that TheRealReal will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0675% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With TheRealReal trading at USD 14.42, that is roughly USD 0.009734 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating TheRealReal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring TheRealReal options at the current volatility level of 1.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 TheRealReal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TheRealReal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TheRealReal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TheRealReal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TheRealReal's open interest, investors have to compare it to TheRealReal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TheRealReal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TheRealReal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
TheRealReal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TheRealReal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TheRealReal using various technical indicators. When you analyze TheRealReal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TheRealReal Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TheRealReal on the next trading day is expected to be 14.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TheRealReal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TheRealReal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TheRealReal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TheRealReal | TheRealReal Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
TheRealReal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TheRealReal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TheRealReal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.76 and 20.09, respectively. We have considered TheRealReal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TheRealReal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TheRealReal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5267 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0569 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3829 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0257 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.973 |
Predictive Modules for TheRealReal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TheRealReal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TheRealReal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TheRealReal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TheRealReal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TheRealReal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TheRealReal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TheRealReal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TheRealReal's historical news coverage. TheRealReal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.02 and 18.36, respectively. We have considered TheRealReal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TheRealReal is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TheRealReal is based on 3 months time horizon.
TheRealReal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TheRealReal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TheRealReal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TheRealReal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 5.67 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.42 | 12.69 | 13.50 |
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TheRealReal Hype Timeline
TheRealReal is at this time traded for 14.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. TheRealReal is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.69. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -13.5%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.58%. The volatility of related hype on TheRealReal is about 2232.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.27. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.01. TheRealReal had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the October 7, 1997. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TheRealReal to cross-verify your projections.TheRealReal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TheRealReal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TheRealReal's future price movements. Getting to know how TheRealReal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TheRealReal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CPRI | Capri Holdings | (0.25) | 8 per month | 1.76 | (0.01) | 4.46 | (3.23) | 12.38 | |
| SIG | Signet Jewelers | (1.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.68 | (4.49) | 13.00 | |
| BRSL | Brightstar Lottery PLC | (0.63) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.42 | (2.06) | 7.30 | |
| PATK | Patrick Industries | 5.35 | 9 per month | 1.62 | 0.14 | 4.19 | (2.62) | 8.35 | |
| ANF | Abercrombie Fitch | (2.61) | 9 per month | 3.48 | 0.09 | 5.90 | (3.84) | 55.23 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | (3.42) | 8 per month | 1.77 | 0.02 | 4.51 | (3.54) | 10.17 | |
| CARG | CarGurus | 0.21 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.84 | (3.16) | 12.39 | |
| HOG | Harley Davidson | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.41 | (3.31) | 8.88 | |
| GTX | Garrett Motion | 0.55 | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.04 | 2.86 | (2.62) | 7.19 | |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts | (0.64) | 8 per month | 2.67 | 0.04 | 3.88 | (2.69) | 13.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for TheRealReal
For every potential investor in TheRealReal, whether a beginner or expert, TheRealReal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TheRealReal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TheRealReal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TheRealReal's price trends.TheRealReal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TheRealReal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TheRealReal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TheRealReal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TheRealReal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TheRealReal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TheRealReal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TheRealReal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TheRealReal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0727 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.8 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.13 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.57) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.67 |
TheRealReal Risk Indicators
The analysis of TheRealReal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TheRealReal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting therealreal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.54 | |||
| Variance | 30.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TheRealReal
The number of cover stories for TheRealReal depends on current market conditions and TheRealReal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TheRealReal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TheRealReal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TheRealReal Short Properties
TheRealReal's future price predictability will typically decrease when TheRealReal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TheRealReal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TheRealReal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TheRealReal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 172.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TheRealReal to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy TheRealReal Stock please use our How to buy in TheRealReal Stock guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TheRealReal. Anticipated expansion of TheRealReal directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive TheRealReal assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (1.01) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.175 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of TheRealReal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TheRealReal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TheRealReal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TheRealReal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TheRealReal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TheRealReal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between TheRealReal's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding TheRealReal should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, TheRealReal's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.