Remitly Global Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

RELY Stock  USD 14.17  0.11  0.77%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Remitly Global on the next trading day is expected to be 15.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.53. Remitly Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Remitly Global's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Remitly Global's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Remitly Global, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Remitly Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Remitly Global from the perspective of Remitly Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Remitly Global on the next trading day is expected to be 15.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.53.

Remitly Global after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 14.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Remitly Global to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Remitly Stock please use our How to Invest in Remitly Global guide.

Remitly Global Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Remitly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Remitly using various technical indicators. When you analyze Remitly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Remitly Global is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Remitly Global value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Remitly Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Remitly Global on the next trading day is expected to be 15.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Remitly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Remitly Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Remitly Global Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Remitly GlobalRemitly Global Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Remitly Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Remitly Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Remitly Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.56 and 19.37, respectively. We have considered Remitly Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.17
15.46
Expected Value
19.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Remitly Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Remitly Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.0368
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4021
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0284
SAESum of the absolute errors24.5304
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Remitly Global. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Remitly Global. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Remitly Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Remitly Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.2714.1718.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.4014.3018.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.9313.9715.01
Details

Remitly Global After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Remitly Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Remitly Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Remitly Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Remitly Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Remitly Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Remitly Global's historical news coverage. Remitly Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.27 and 18.07, respectively. We have considered Remitly Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
14.17
14.17
After-hype Price
18.07
Upside
Remitly Global is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Remitly Global is based on 3 months time horizon.

Remitly Global Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Remitly Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Remitly Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Remitly Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21 
3.90
 0.00  
  0.01 
0 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
14.17
14.17
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Remitly Global Hype Timeline

Remitly Global is at this time traded for 14.17. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Remitly is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Remitly Global is about 9750.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.18. About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Remitly Global was at this time reported as 3.81. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Remitly Global to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Remitly Stock please use our How to Invest in Remitly Global guide.

Remitly Global Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Remitly Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Remitly Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Remitly Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Remitly Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
TENBTenable Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.32) 1.79 (3.40) 9.13 
WRDWeRide American Depositary 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 5.02 (6.66) 24.73 
SPSCSPS Commerce 1.30 12 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.21 (3.12) 22.93 
EEFTEuronet Worldwide(0.84)6 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.03 (2.67) 8.01 
DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings(0.68)10 per month 2.57  0.10  6.72 (4.19) 24.58 
PAGSPagSeguro Digital 0.03 8 per month 2.53  0.09  4.76 (4.93) 11.71 
AGYSAgilysys 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.04) 3.20 (4.13) 28.78 
BBBlackBerry 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.17) 3.29 (3.12) 16.30 
DAVEDave Inc 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.13) 5.29 (8.15) 19.16 
PTRNPattern Group Series 0.59 24 per month 3.98  0.02  9.15 (6.68) 30.40 

Other Forecasting Options for Remitly Global

For every potential investor in Remitly, whether a beginner or expert, Remitly Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Remitly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Remitly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Remitly Global's price trends.

Remitly Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Remitly Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Remitly Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Remitly Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Remitly Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Remitly Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Remitly Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Remitly Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Remitly Global entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Remitly Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Remitly Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Remitly Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting remitly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Remitly Global

The number of cover stories for Remitly Global depends on current market conditions and Remitly Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Remitly Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Remitly Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Remitly Global Short Properties

Remitly Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Remitly Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Remitly Global often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Remitly Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Remitly Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding194.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments368.1 M

Additional Tools for Remitly Stock Analysis

When running Remitly Global's price analysis, check to measure Remitly Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Remitly Global is operating at the current time. Most of Remitly Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Remitly Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Remitly Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Remitly Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.