Rithm Capital Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RITM Stock | USD 10.48 0.22 2.06% |
Rithm Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Rithm Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Rithm Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Rithm Capital fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Rithm Capital's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5197 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.2605 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3071 | Wall Street Target Price 14.5 |
Using Rithm Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rithm Capital Corp from the perspective of Rithm Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Rithm Capital using Rithm Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Rithm using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Rithm Capital's stock price.
Rithm Capital Short Interest
An investor who is long Rithm Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Rithm Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge Rithm Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 11.477 | Short Percent 0.0171 | Short Ratio 1.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.6 M | 50 Day MA 11.2714 |
Rithm Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rithm Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.37.Rithm Capital Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Rithm Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Rithm. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Rithm can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Rithm Capital Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Rithm Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Rithm Capital.
Rithm Capital Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
Rithm Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Rithm Capital Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Rithm Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Rithm Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Rithm Capital's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rithm Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.37. Rithm Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 10.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rithm Capital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Rithm contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Rithm Capital Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Rithm Capital trading at USD 10.48, that is roughly USD 0.004127 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Rithm Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Rithm Capital Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Rithm Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Rithm Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Rithm Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Rithm Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Rithm Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Rithm Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Rithm Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Rithm. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Rithm Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rithm price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rithm using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rithm charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rithm Capital Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rithm Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rithm Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rithm Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rithm Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rithm Capital | Rithm Capital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Rithm Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rithm Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rithm Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.78 and 12.08, respectively. We have considered Rithm Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rithm Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rithm Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0162 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1419 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.3744 |
Predictive Modules for Rithm Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rithm Capital Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rithm Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Rithm Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rithm Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rithm Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rithm Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rithm Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rithm Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rithm Capital's historical news coverage. Rithm Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.05 and 12.35, respectively. We have considered Rithm Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rithm Capital is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rithm Capital Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rithm Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rithm Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rithm Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rithm Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.48 | 10.70 | 0.00 |
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Rithm Capital Hype Timeline
Rithm Capital Corp is at this time traded for 10.48. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Rithm is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Rithm Capital is about 738.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.48. About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.84. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Rithm Capital Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.44. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The firm had 1:2 split on the 20th of October 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rithm Capital to cross-verify your projections.Rithm Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rithm Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rithm Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Rithm Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rithm Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EPRT | Essential Properties Realty | 0.68 | 9 per month | 0.97 | 0 | 1.90 | (1.54) | 4.88 | |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.39 | (3.39) | 10.47 | |
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust | (0.05) | 12 per month | 0.91 | (0.07) | 1.81 | (1.46) | 4.49 | |
| BPYPO | Brookfield Property Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.73 | (0.04) | 1.36 | (1.01) | 5.05 | |
| TRNO | Terreno Realty | 0.14 | 10 per month | 0.88 | 0.06 | 2.49 | (1.77) | 5.89 | |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties | 0.49 | 10 per month | 0.88 | 0.07 | 2.66 | (1.67) | 6.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rithm Capital
For every potential investor in Rithm, whether a beginner or expert, Rithm Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rithm Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rithm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rithm Capital's price trends.Rithm Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rithm Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rithm Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rithm Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rithm Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rithm Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rithm Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rithm Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rithm Capital Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.48 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.22) |
Rithm Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rithm Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rithm Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rithm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rithm Capital
The number of cover stories for Rithm Capital depends on current market conditions and Rithm Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rithm Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rithm Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Rithm Capital Short Properties
Rithm Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Rithm Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Rithm Capital Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Rithm Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rithm Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 564.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rithm Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could Rithm diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rithm Capital. Anticipated expansion of Rithm directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Rithm Capital data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 1.04 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) |
The market value of Rithm Capital Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rithm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rithm Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rithm Capital's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Rithm Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rithm Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Rithm Capital's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Rithm Capital should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Rithm Capital's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.