Rivian Automotive Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

Key Indicators . Polynomial Regression . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Rivian Automotive
RIVN Stock  USD 13.95  -0.13  -0.92%   
Rivian Automotive's Polynomial Regression forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Polynomial Regression model projects Rivian Automotive at 13.59 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Polynomial Regression output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Polynomial regression for Rivian Automotive fits a curved line through historical price points using time as the independent variable. Unlike simple regression, which fits only a straight line, polynomial regression can capture nonlinear price trends including acceleration and deceleration.

Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2026

Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Rivian Automotive at 13.59 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 34.33 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Rivian Automotive's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Rivian Automotive  Rivian Automotive Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This forecast for Rivian Automotive frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. Downside is estimated near 8.96 and upside near 18.21. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
13.95
8.96
Downside
13.59
Expected Value
18.21
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Rivian Automotive stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.346
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5627
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0358
SAESum of the absolute errors34.326
The model takes the form: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm. Higher-degree polynomials fit Rivian Automotive historical data more closely but are more prone to overfitting, which can produce unreliable extrapolations beyond the observed price range.

Other Forecasting Options for Rivian Automotive

Volume-weighted price analysis for Rivian Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line identify shifts in Rivian momentum before they appear in raw price.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Rivian Automotive Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Consumer Discretionary space frame Rivian Automotive's pricing and running costs in context. Checking Rivian Automotive against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Rivian Automotive across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rivian Automotive Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Rivian Automotive, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Rivian Automotive.
Accumulation Distribution861274.0
Daily Balance Of Power-0.24
Rate Of Daily Change0.99
Day Median Price13.92
Day Typical Price13.93
Price Action Indicator-0.03
Period Momentum Indicator-0.13
Relative Strength Index38.45

Rivian Automotive Risk Indicators

Analyzing Rivian Automotive's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for rivian stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Rivian Automotive.
Mean Deviation2.86
Semi Deviation3.57
Standard Deviation4.53
Variance20.51
Downside Variance13.17
Semi Variance12.76
Expected Short fall-2.96
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Rivian Automotive Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Rivian Automotive is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.19 billion
Cash And Short Term Investments6.08 billion
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