Rheinmetall Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

RNMBF Stock  USD 663.08  13.13  2.02%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rheinmetall AG on the next trading day is expected to be 667.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 733.80. Rheinmetall Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Rheinmetall's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Rheinmetall - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Rheinmetall prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Rheinmetall price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Rheinmetall AG.

Rheinmetall Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rheinmetall AG on the next trading day is expected to be 667.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.44, mean absolute percentage error of 281.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 733.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rheinmetall Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rheinmetall's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rheinmetall Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Rheinmetall Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Rheinmetall's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rheinmetall's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 664.85 and 670.68, respectively. We have considered Rheinmetall's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
663.08
664.85
Downside
667.76
Expected Value
670.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rheinmetall pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rheinmetall pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.2965
MADMean absolute deviation12.4372
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0221
SAESum of the absolute errors733.7956
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Rheinmetall observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Rheinmetall AG observations.

Predictive Modules for Rheinmetall

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rheinmetall AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
660.17663.08665.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
620.10623.01729.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
484.53589.72694.91
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rheinmetall. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rheinmetall's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rheinmetall's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Rheinmetall AG.

Other Forecasting Options for Rheinmetall

For every potential investor in Rheinmetall, whether a beginner or expert, Rheinmetall's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rheinmetall Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rheinmetall. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rheinmetall's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rheinmetall AG Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rheinmetall's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rheinmetall's current price.

Rheinmetall Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rheinmetall pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rheinmetall shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rheinmetall pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Rheinmetall AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rheinmetall Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rheinmetall's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rheinmetall's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rheinmetall pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Rheinmetall Pink Sheet

Rheinmetall financial ratios help investors to determine whether Rheinmetall Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Rheinmetall with respect to the benefits of owning Rheinmetall security.