Regal Beloit Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RRX Stock | USD 161.50 0.56 0.35% |
Regal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Regal Beloit's share price is at 59 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Regal Beloit, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.1 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.6877 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.6136 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.7534 | Wall Street Target Price 180 |
Using Regal Beloit hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Regal Beloit from the perspective of Regal Beloit response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Regal Beloit using Regal Beloit's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Regal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Regal Beloit's stock price.
Regal Beloit Short Interest
An investor who is long Regal Beloit may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Regal Beloit and may potentially protect profits, hedge Regal Beloit with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 141.3145 | Short Percent 0.0533 | Short Ratio 4.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | 50 Day MA 146.7714 |
Regal Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regal Beloit on the next trading day is expected to be 161.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.91.Regal Beloit Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Regal Beloit's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Regal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Regal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Regal Beloit. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Regal Beloit's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Regal Beloit.
Regal Beloit Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Regal Beloit's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Regal Beloit stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Regal Beloit's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Regal Beloit stock will not fluctuate a lot when Regal Beloit's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regal Beloit on the next trading day is expected to be 161.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.91. Regal Beloit after-hype prediction price | USD 162.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Regal Beloit to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Regal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Regal Beloit will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Regal Beloit trading at USD 161.5, that is roughly USD 0.0505 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Regal Beloit's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Regal Beloit options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Regal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Regal Beloit's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Regal Beloit's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Regal Beloit stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Regal Beloit's open interest, investors have to compare it to Regal Beloit's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Regal Beloit is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Regal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Regal Beloit Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Regal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Regal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Regal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Regal Beloit Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regal Beloit on the next trading day is expected to be 161.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.67, mean absolute percentage error of 12.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Regal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Regal Beloit's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Regal Beloit Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Regal Beloit | Regal Beloit Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Regal Beloit Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Regal Beloit's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Regal Beloit's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 159.08 and 163.92, respectively. We have considered Regal Beloit's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Regal Beloit stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Regal Beloit stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.6113 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.408 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6707 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 162.91 |
Predictive Modules for Regal Beloit
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Regal Beloit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Regal Beloit After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Regal Beloit at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Regal Beloit or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Regal Beloit, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Regal Beloit Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Regal Beloit's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Regal Beloit's historical news coverage. Regal Beloit's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 159.85 and 164.69, respectively. We have considered Regal Beloit's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Regal Beloit is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Regal Beloit is based on 3 months time horizon.
Regal Beloit Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Regal Beloit is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Regal Beloit backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Regal Beloit, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.42 | 0.77 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
161.50 | 162.27 | 0.48 |
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Regal Beloit Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January Regal Beloit is traded for 161.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Regal is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 162.27 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 93.8%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.48%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Regal Beloit is about 1042.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 161.57. The company reported the last year's revenue of 6.03 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 198.4 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.18 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Regal Beloit to cross-verify your projections.Regal Beloit Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Regal Beloit's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Regal Beloit's future price movements. Getting to know how Regal Beloit's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Regal Beloit may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 3.91 | 25 per month | 0.72 | 0.16 | 2.68 | (1.79) | 6.54 | |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies | (3.78) | 10 per month | 1.38 | 0.03 | 2.75 | (1.61) | 9.37 | |
| DCI | Donaldson | (0.42) | 10 per month | 0.75 | 0.19 | 2.27 | (1.74) | 9.29 | |
| GRC | Gorman Rupp | 0.67 | 8 per month | 1.17 | 0.12 | 3.62 | (2.33) | 7.79 | |
| EPAC | Enerpac Tool Group | 1.44 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.65 | (2.83) | 12.80 | |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co | 1.47 | 7 per month | 1.18 | (0.04) | 2.56 | (1.83) | 6.31 | |
| CR | Crane Company | 0.93 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.28 | (2.32) | 15.15 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | 1.47 | 9 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 2.46 | (1.86) | 6.74 | |
| ITT | ITT Inc | (0.21) | 8 per month | 1.76 | 0.02 | 2.20 | (2.11) | 17.49 | |
| MIDD | Middleby Corp | 6.71 | 7 per month | 1.58 | 0.06 | 3.85 | (3.10) | 12.68 | |
| NPO | Enpro Industries | (10.14) | 10 per month | 2.53 | 0 | 3.52 | (3.85) | 9.97 | |
| KAI | Kadant Inc | (0.14) | 19 per month | 1.69 | 0.06 | 4.03 | (2.93) | 10.20 | |
| FLS | Flowserve | 0.79 | 12 per month | 0.93 | 0.15 | 2.55 | (2.33) | 34.18 | |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand | 0.55 | 32 per month | 1.39 | 0.06 | 3.74 | (2.52) | 8.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Regal Beloit
For every potential investor in Regal, whether a beginner or expert, Regal Beloit's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Regal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Regal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Regal Beloit's price trends.Regal Beloit Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Regal Beloit stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Regal Beloit could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Regal Beloit by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Regal Beloit Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Regal Beloit stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Regal Beloit shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Regal Beloit stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Regal Beloit entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Regal Beloit Risk Indicators
The analysis of Regal Beloit's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Regal Beloit's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting regal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Variance | 6.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Regal Beloit
The number of cover stories for Regal Beloit depends on current market conditions and Regal Beloit's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Regal Beloit is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Regal Beloit's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Regal Beloit Short Properties
Regal Beloit's future price predictability will typically decrease when Regal Beloit's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Regal Beloit often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Regal Beloit's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Regal Beloit's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 393.5 M |
Additional Tools for Regal Stock Analysis
When running Regal Beloit's price analysis, check to measure Regal Beloit's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Regal Beloit is operating at the current time. Most of Regal Beloit's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Regal Beloit's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Regal Beloit's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Regal Beloit to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.