Runway Growth Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| RWAYZ Stock | 25.29 0.08 0.32% |
Runway Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Runway Growth's share price is at 54 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Runway Growth, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Runway Growth hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Runway Growth Finance from the perspective of Runway Growth response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Runway Growth Finance on the next trading day is expected to be 25.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.57. Runway Growth after-hype prediction price | USD 25.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Runway Growth to cross-verify your projections. Runway Growth Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Runway price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Runway using various technical indicators. When you analyze Runway charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Runway Growth Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Runway Growth Finance on the next trading day is expected to be 25.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Runway Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Runway Growth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Runway Growth Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Runway Growth | Runway Growth Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Runway Growth Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Runway Growth's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Runway Growth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.20 and 25.57, respectively. We have considered Runway Growth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Runway Growth stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Runway Growth stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.1774 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0422 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.5729 |
Predictive Modules for Runway Growth
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Runway Growth Finance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Runway Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Runway Growth After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Runway Growth at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Runway Growth or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Runway Growth, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Runway Growth Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Runway Growth's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Runway Growth's historical news coverage. Runway Growth's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.18 and 25.54, respectively. We have considered Runway Growth's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Runway Growth is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Runway Growth Finance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Runway Growth Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Runway Growth is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Runway Growth backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Runway Growth, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.29 | 25.36 | 0.04 |
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Runway Growth Hype Timeline
Runway Growth Finance is at this time traded for 25.29. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Runway is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 25.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Runway Growth is about 107.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.28. The company last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Runway Growth to cross-verify your projections.Runway Growth Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Runway Growth's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Runway Growth's future price movements. Getting to know how Runway Growth's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Runway Growth may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RM | Regional Management Corp | 0.45 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.68 | (3.78) | 13.72 | |
| ATLC | Atlanticus Holdings | (1.65) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.64 | (5.57) | 14.61 | |
| NEWTI | NewtekOne 800 percent | 0.06 | 22 per month | 0.45 | (0.04) | 1.35 | (1.06) | 2.99 | |
| SAR | Saratoga Investment Corp | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.88 | 0.02 | 1.58 | (1.79) | 4.25 | |
| CCIX | Churchill Capital Corp | 0.00 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 0.38 | (0.37) | 1.69 | |
| TACO | Berto Acquisition Corp | (0.03) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 0.20 | (0.29) | 3.77 | |
| VBNK | VersaBank | (0.16) | 8 per month | 0.79 | 0.19 | 2.90 | (1.67) | 13.41 | |
| FRBA | First Bank | 0.02 | 7 per month | 1.32 | 0 | 3.29 | (1.92) | 8.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Runway Growth
For every potential investor in Runway, whether a beginner or expert, Runway Growth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Runway Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Runway. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Runway Growth's price trends.Runway Growth Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Runway Growth stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Runway Growth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Runway Growth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Runway Growth Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Runway Growth stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Runway Growth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Runway Growth stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Runway Growth Finance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Runway Growth Risk Indicators
The analysis of Runway Growth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Runway Growth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting runway stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1452 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.186 | |||
| Variance | 0.0346 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0329 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Runway Growth
The number of cover stories for Runway Growth depends on current market conditions and Runway Growth's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Runway Growth is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Runway Growth's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Runway Stock Analysis
When running Runway Growth's price analysis, check to measure Runway Growth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Runway Growth is operating at the current time. Most of Runway Growth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Runway Growth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Runway Growth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Runway Growth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.