Societe Generale Pink Sheet Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| SCGLY Stock | USD 17.07 0.51 3.08% |
Societe Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Societe Generale's pink sheet price is slightly above 68. This usually implies that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Societe, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Societe Generale hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Societe Generale ADR from the perspective of Societe Generale response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Societe Generale ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 16.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.69. Societe Generale after-hype prediction price | USD 17.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Societe |
Societe Generale Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Societe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Societe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Societe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Societe Generale Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Societe Generale ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 16.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Societe Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Societe Generale's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Societe Generale Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Societe Generale | Societe Generale Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Societe Generale Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Societe Generale's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Societe Generale's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.80 and 18.06, respectively. We have considered Societe Generale's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Societe Generale pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Societe Generale pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3702 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2209 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.6944 |
Predictive Modules for Societe Generale
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Societe Generale ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Societe Generale After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Societe Generale at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Societe Generale or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Societe Generale, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Societe Generale Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Societe Generale's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Societe Generale's historical news coverage. Societe Generale's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.45 and 18.69, respectively. We have considered Societe Generale's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Societe Generale is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Societe Generale ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Societe Generale Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Societe Generale is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Societe Generale backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Societe Generale, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.07 | 17.07 | 0.00 |
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Societe Generale Hype Timeline
Societe Generale ADR is at this time traded for 17.07. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Societe is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on Societe Generale is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.07. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.27. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Societe Generale ADR last dividend was issued on the 23rd of May 2022. The entity had 4:1 split on the 11th of May 2000. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Societe Generale to cross-verify your projections.Societe Generale Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Societe Generale's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Societe Generale's future price movements. Getting to know how Societe Generale's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Societe Generale may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BNKHF | BOC Hong Kong | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.96 | |
| BHKLY | BOC Hong Kong | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.03 | 2.42 | (2.05) | 5.78 | |
| KBCSF | KBC Group NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.23 | |
| UOVEY | United Overseas Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.64 | 0.12 | 1.11 | (0.99) | 3.79 | |
| CRARY | Credit Agricole SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.08 | 1.98 | (1.26) | 5.74 | |
| UOVEF | United Overseas Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.37 | 0.09 | 8.15 | (6.15) | 17.74 | |
| SCBFY | Standard Chartered PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.83 | 0.28 | 2.69 | (1.94) | 6.40 | |
| OVCHY | Overseas Chinese Banking | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.44 | 0.27 | 1.77 | (1.19) | 7.02 | |
| NRDBY | Nordea Bank Abp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.79 | 0.17 | 1.86 | (1.67) | 4.06 | |
| PBCRF | PT Bank Central | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.13 | 0.00 | 28.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Societe Generale
For every potential investor in Societe, whether a beginner or expert, Societe Generale's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Societe Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Societe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Societe Generale's price trends.Societe Generale Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Societe Generale pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Societe Generale could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Societe Generale by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Societe Generale Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Societe Generale pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Societe Generale shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Societe Generale pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Societe Generale ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Societe Generale Risk Indicators
The analysis of Societe Generale's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Societe Generale's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting societe pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8642 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7468 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Societe Generale
The number of cover stories for Societe Generale depends on current market conditions and Societe Generale's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Societe Generale is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Societe Generale's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Societe Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Societe Generale's price analysis, check to measure Societe Generale's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Societe Generale is operating at the current time. Most of Societe Generale's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Societe Generale's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Societe Generale's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Societe Generale to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.