SES AI Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SES Stock | USD 2.10 0.30 12.50% |
SES Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of SES AI's share price is approaching 48. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling SES AI, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.18) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.16) | Wall Street Target Price 3 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.03) |
Using SES AI hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SES AI Corp from the perspective of SES AI response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards SES AI using SES AI's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards SES using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of SES AI's stock price.
SES AI Short Interest
An investor who is long SES AI may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about SES AI and may potentially protect profits, hedge SES AI with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.512 | Short Percent 0.0324 | Short Ratio 1.46 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.3 M | 50 Day MA 2.042 |
SES Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SES AI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.25.SES AI Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to SES AI's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in SES. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding SES can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around SES AI Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of SES AI's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about SES AI.
SES AI Implied Volatility | 1.5 |
SES AI's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of SES AI Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if SES AI's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that SES AI stock will not fluctuate a lot when SES AI's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SES AI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.25. SES AI after-hype prediction price | USD 2.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SES AI to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current SES contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that SES AI Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0938% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With SES AI trading at USD 2.1, that is roughly USD 0.001969 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating SES AI's daily price movement you should consider acquiring SES AI Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 SES Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SES AI's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in SES AI's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for SES AI stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SES AI's open interest, investors have to compare it to SES AI's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SES AI is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SES. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
SES AI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SES price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SES using various technical indicators. When you analyze SES charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the SES AI's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2007-09-30 | Previous Quarter 11.8 M | Current Value 35.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 86.4 M |
SES AI Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SES AI Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SES Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SES AI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SES AI Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SES AI | SES AI Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SES AI Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SES AI's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SES AI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.31, respectively. We have considered SES AI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SES AI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SES AI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1177 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1169 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0561 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.2477 |
Predictive Modules for SES AI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SES AI Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SES AI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SES AI After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SES AI at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SES AI or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SES AI, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SES AI Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SES AI's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SES AI's historical news coverage. SES AI's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 8.04, respectively. We have considered SES AI's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SES AI is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SES AI Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
SES AI Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SES AI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SES AI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SES AI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 5.99 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.10 | 2.10 | 0.00 |
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SES AI Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January SES AI Corp is traded for 2.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. SES is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on SES AI is about 3889.61%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.09. About 15.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of SES AI was at this time reported as 0.63. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.28. SES AI Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:8 split on the 22nd of July 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SES AI to cross-verify your projections.SES AI Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SES AI's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SES AI's future price movements. Getting to know how SES AI's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SES AI may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ECX | ECARX Holdings Class | (0.13) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.25 | (10.48) | 26.42 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | (0.26) | 9 per month | 6.69 | (0) | 16.00 | (10.24) | 48.05 | |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | 0.62 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.07 | (2.25) | 7.22 | |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | 0.07 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.90 | (5.07) | 28.69 | |
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | (2.41) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.93 | (5.13) | 34.59 | |
| AXL | American Axle Manufacturing | 0.09 | 11 per month | 2.38 | 0.12 | 6.86 | (4.01) | 13.25 | |
| CWH | Camping World Holdings | 0.19 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 6.54 | (6.47) | 27.07 | |
| SG | Sweetgreen | 0.01 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.86 | (6.98) | 23.70 | |
| LUXE | LuxExperience BV | 0.55 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.35 | (4.06) | 11.22 | |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics | (0.27) | 11 per month | 0.90 | 0.14 | 3.22 | (1.80) | 8.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for SES AI
For every potential investor in SES, whether a beginner or expert, SES AI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SES Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SES. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SES AI's price trends.SES AI Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SES AI stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SES AI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SES AI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SES AI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SES AI stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SES AI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SES AI stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SES AI Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SES AI Risk Indicators
The analysis of SES AI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SES AI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ses stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.08 | |||
| Variance | 36.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SES AI
The number of cover stories for SES AI depends on current market conditions and SES AI's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SES AI is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SES AI's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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SES AI Short Properties
SES AI's future price predictability will typically decrease when SES AI's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of SES AI Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential SES AI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SES AI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 321.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 262.5 M |
Additional Tools for SES Stock Analysis
When running SES AI's price analysis, check to measure SES AI's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SES AI is operating at the current time. Most of SES AI's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SES AI's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SES AI's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SES AI to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.