SM Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SM Stock | USD 46.03 0.57 1.25% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SM Energy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 46.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.67. SM Energy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although SM Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of SM Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of SM Energy fundamentals over time.
SM Energy |
SM Energy Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the SM Energy's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1990-12-31 | Previous Quarter 487.9 M | Current Value 1.7 B | Quarterly Volatility 232.4 M |
SM Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SM Energy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 46.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 1.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SM Energy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SM Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SM Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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SM Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SM Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SM Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.57 and 48.63, respectively. We have considered SM Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SM Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SM Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3197 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.847 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0202 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.6681 |
Predictive Modules for SM Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SM Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for SM Energy
For every potential investor in SM Energy, whether a beginner or expert, SM Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SM Energy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SM Energy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SM Energy's price trends.View SM Energy Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SM Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SM Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SM Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
SM Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SM Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SM Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SM Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SM Energy Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SM Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of SM Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SM Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sm energy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Variance | 6.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SM Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SM Energy. If investors know SM Energy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SM Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.112 | Dividend Share 0.74 | Earnings Share 7.14 | Revenue Per Share 20.3 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of SM Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SM Energy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SM Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SM Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SM Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SM Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SM Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SM Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SM Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.