SM Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SM Stock | USD 19.18 0.50 2.68% |
SM Energy Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although SM Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of SM Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of SM Energy fundamentals over time.
As of now, The value of relative strength index of SM Energy's share price is at 50. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling SM Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0079 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.4724 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.1043 | Wall Street Target Price 31 |
Using SM Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SM Energy Co from the perspective of SM Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards SM Energy using SM Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards SM Energy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of SM Energy's stock price.
SM Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long SM Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about SM Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge SM Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.3462 | Short Percent 0.1056 | Short Ratio 3.21 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.1 M | 50 Day MA 18.8604 |
SM Energy Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SM Energy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 19.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.50.SM Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to SM Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in SM Energy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding SM Energy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around SM Energy Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of SM Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about SM Energy.
SM Energy Implied Volatility | 0.74 |
SM Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of SM Energy Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if SM Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that SM Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when SM Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SM Energy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 19.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.50. SM Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 18.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
SM Energy | Build AI portfolio with SM Energy Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current SM Energy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that SM Energy Co will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0463% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With SM Energy trading at USD 19.18, that is roughly USD 0.008871 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating SM Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring SM Energy Co options at the current volatility level of 0.74%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 SM Energy Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SM Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in SM Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for SM Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SM Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to SM Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SM Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SM Energy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
SM Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SM Energy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SM Energy using various technical indicators. When you analyze SM Energy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SM Energy Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the SM Energy's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1990-12-31 | Previous Quarter 101.9 M | Current Value 162.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 229.3 M |
SM Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SM Energy Co on the next trading day is expected to be 19.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SM Energy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SM Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SM Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SM Energy | SM Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SM Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SM Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SM Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.84 and 21.88, respectively. We have considered SM Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SM Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SM Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4703 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3361 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.4991 |
Predictive Modules for SM Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SM Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SM Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SM Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SM Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SM Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SM Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SM Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SM Energy's historical news coverage. SM Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.06 and 21.10, respectively. We have considered SM Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SM Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SM Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
SM Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SM Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SM Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SM Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.52 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 13 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.18 | 18.58 | 0.54 |
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SM Energy Hype Timeline
As of January 26, 2026 SM Energy is listed for 19.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. SM Energy is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.58. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.54%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on SM Energy is about 1984.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.19. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.45. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. SM Energy recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.33. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of April 2005. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SM Energy to cross-verify your projections.SM Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SM Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SM Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how SM Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SM Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NOG | Northern Oil Gas | 0.67 | 10 per month | 2.37 | 0.05 | 5.26 | (3.89) | 10.76 | |
| CRGY | Crescent Energy Co | (0.02) | 8 per month | 2.96 | 0.03 | 5.24 | (5.18) | 15.66 | |
| CIVI | Civitas Resources | (0.47) | 10 per month | 2.36 | (0.01) | 3.75 | (4.19) | 11.71 | |
| BKV | BKV Corporation | (0.62) | 8 per month | 2.18 | 0.13 | 5.08 | (3.24) | 19.36 | |
| TRMD | Torm PLC Class | (0.06) | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.05 | 4.13 | (2.56) | 10.37 | |
| CSAN | Cosan SA ADR | (0.23) | 9 per month | 3.21 | (0.01) | 5.52 | (6.29) | 18.30 | |
| TNK | Teekay Tankers | 0.54 | 9 per month | 1.72 | 0.05 | 3.67 | (2.82) | 12.96 | |
| DK | Delek Energy | 1.23 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.60 | (3.81) | 12.71 | |
| DHT | DHT Holdings | 0.27 | 7 per month | 1.38 | 0.08 | 3.00 | (2.35) | 12.28 | |
| KNTK | Kinetik Holdings | (0.04) | 11 per month | 2.49 | 0.04 | 4.08 | (3.31) | 14.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for SM Energy
For every potential investor in SM Energy, whether a beginner or expert, SM Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SM Energy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SM Energy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SM Energy's price trends.SM Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SM Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SM Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SM Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SM Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SM Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SM Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SM Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SM Energy Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SM Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of SM Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SM Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sm energy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Variance | 6.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SM Energy
The number of cover stories for SM Energy depends on current market conditions and SM Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SM Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SM Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SM Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SM Energy. If investors know SM Energy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SM Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 6.33 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.267 |
The market value of SM Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SM Energy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SM Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SM Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SM Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SM Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SM Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SM Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SM Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.