Semtech Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SM2 Stock | EUR 73.00 5.34 7.89% |
Semtech Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Semtech's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Semtech's stock price is roughly 60. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 2nd of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Semtech, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Wall Street Target Price 88.3 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.127 |
Using Semtech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Semtech from the perspective of Semtech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Semtech on the next trading day is expected to be 72.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.43. Semtech after-hype prediction price | EUR 73.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Semtech |
Semtech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Semtech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Semtech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Semtech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Semtech Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Semtech on the next trading day is expected to be 72.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89, mean absolute percentage error of 6.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Semtech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Semtech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Semtech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Semtech | Semtech Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Semtech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Semtech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Semtech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 67.83 and 76.31, respectively. We have considered Semtech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Semtech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Semtech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1092 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2766 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8906 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0304 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.4334 |
Predictive Modules for Semtech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Semtech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Semtech After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Semtech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Semtech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Semtech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Semtech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Semtech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Semtech's historical news coverage. Semtech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 68.76 and 77.24, respectively. We have considered Semtech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Semtech is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Semtech is based on 3 months time horizon.
Semtech Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Semtech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Semtech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Semtech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 4.24 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
73.00 | 73.00 | 0.00 |
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Semtech Hype Timeline
Semtech is at this time traded for 73.00on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.74, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Semtech is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.5%. %. The volatility of related hype on Semtech is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 73.00. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of September 1980. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Semtech to cross-verify your projections.Semtech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Semtech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Semtech's future price movements. Getting to know how Semtech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Semtech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| W060 | Byggmstare Anders J | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.74 | (4.23) | 9.99 | |
| HHX | HAMMONIA Schiffsholding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.64 | 0.04 | 8.51 | (8.33) | 25.94 | |
| T1A | Treasure ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.07 | 6.14 | (2.79) | 13.61 | |
| 8SP | Superior Plus Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.29 | (1.84) | 21.96 | |
| 39O1 | Origin Agritech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.40 | (7.69) | 25.33 | |
| INVN | Identiv | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.83 | (5.73) | 18.31 | |
| IUI1 | INTUITIVE SURGICAL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | 0.02 | 2.35 | (2.33) | 7.13 | |
| INL | Intel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.40 | 0.08 | 8.76 | (5.60) | 24.14 | |
| VOW | Volkswagen AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.72 | 0.13 | 2.12 | (1.19) | 6.95 | |
| BTC1 | Bitwise Core Bitcoin | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.90 | (4.16) | 13.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for Semtech
For every potential investor in Semtech, whether a beginner or expert, Semtech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Semtech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Semtech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Semtech's price trends.Semtech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Semtech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Semtech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Semtech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Semtech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Semtech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Semtech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Semtech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Semtech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Semtech Risk Indicators
The analysis of Semtech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Semtech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting semtech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.91 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.07 | |||
| Variance | 16.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Semtech
The number of cover stories for Semtech depends on current market conditions and Semtech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Semtech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Semtech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Semtech to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Semtech Stock please use our How to Invest in Semtech guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.