Surf Air Stock Forward View
| SRFM Stock | 2.02 0.10 4.72% |
Surf Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Surf Air's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Surf Air's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Surf Air fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Surf Air's share price is approaching 38. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Surf Air, making its price go up or down. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.57) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.42) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.15) | Wall Street Target Price 7.75 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.60) |
Using Surf Air hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Surf Air Mobility from the perspective of Surf Air response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Surf Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Surf Air Mobility on the next trading day is expected to be 1.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.15.Surf Air Mobility Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Surf Air's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Surf. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Surf can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Surf Air Mobility. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Surf Air's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Surf Air.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Surf Air Mobility on the next trading day is expected to be 1.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.15. Surf Air after-hype prediction price | USD 2.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Surf Air to cross-verify your projections. Surf Air Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Surf price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Surf using various technical indicators. When you analyze Surf charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Surf Air Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Surf Air's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 24.3 M | Current Value 25.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 7.4 M |
Surf Air Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Surf Air Mobility on the next trading day is expected to be 1.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Surf Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Surf Air's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Surf Air Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Surf Air | Surf Air Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Surf Air Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Surf Air's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Surf Air's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.41, respectively. We have considered Surf Air's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Surf Air stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Surf Air stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1451 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1959 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0835 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.1483 |
Predictive Modules for Surf Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Surf Air Mobility. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Surf Air After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Surf Air at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Surf Air or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Surf Air, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Surf Air Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Surf Air's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Surf Air's historical news coverage. Surf Air's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 9.14, respectively. We have considered Surf Air's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Surf Air is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Surf Air Mobility is based on 3 months time horizon.
Surf Air Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Surf Air is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Surf Air backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Surf Air, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.83 | 6.92 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.02 | 2.18 | 0.00 |
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Surf Air Hype Timeline
Surf Air Mobility is at this time traded for 2.02. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Surf is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.83%. %. The volatility of related hype on Surf Air is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.02. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.14. Surf Air Mobility had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:7 split on the 19th of August 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Surf Air to cross-verify your projections.Surf Air Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Surf Air's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Surf Air's future price movements. Getting to know how Surf Air's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Surf Air may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MATH | Metalpha Technology Holding | (0.12) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.94 | (6.21) | 19.54 | |
| MVST | Microvast Holdings | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 6.02 | (8.87) | 18.37 | |
| FORR | Forrester Research | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.17 | (4.40) | 13.37 | |
| TBI | TrueBlue | (0.14) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.89 | (4.59) | 24.96 | |
| EML | Eastern Co | 0.95 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.46 | (3.27) | 10.55 | |
| HOVR | New Horizon Aircraft | 0.10 | 8 per month | 6.97 | 0 | 13.16 | (9.62) | 38.44 | |
| GIFI | Gulf Island Fabrication | 0.08 | 24 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 2.43 | (1.23) | 49.85 | |
| VOLT | Tema Electrification ETF | (0.93) | 4 per month | 1.29 | 0.04 | 1.74 | (2.15) | 5.14 | |
| SKBL | Skyline Builders Group | 0.01 | 7 per month | 7.35 | 0.01 | 12.22 | (14.00) | 40.37 | |
| TUSK | Mammoth Energy Services | 0.11 | 8 per month | 3.16 | (0.0003) | 7.35 | (4.84) | 27.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Surf Air
For every potential investor in Surf, whether a beginner or expert, Surf Air's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Surf Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Surf. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Surf Air's price trends.Surf Air Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Surf Air stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Surf Air could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Surf Air by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Surf Air Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Surf Air stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Surf Air shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Surf Air stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Surf Air Mobility entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Surf Air Risk Indicators
The analysis of Surf Air's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Surf Air's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting surf stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.72 | |||
| Variance | 45.18 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Surf Air
The number of cover stories for Surf Air depends on current market conditions and Surf Air's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Surf Air is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Surf Air's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Surf Air Short Properties
Surf Air's future price predictability will typically decrease when Surf Air's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Surf Air Mobility often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Surf Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Surf Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Surf Air to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Will Passenger Airlines sector continue expanding? Could Surf diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Surf Air. If investors know Surf will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Surf Air data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Surf Air Mobility using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Surf Air's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Surf Air's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Surf Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Surf Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Surf Air's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.