Stem Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| STEM Stock | USD 15.60 1.02 6.14% |
Stem Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Stem's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Stem's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Stem fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Stem's share price is approaching 42. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Stem, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.65) | EPS Estimate Current Year (8.86) | EPS Estimate Next Year (6.50) | Wall Street Target Price 19.1667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.94) |
Using Stem hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stem Inc from the perspective of Stem response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Stem using Stem's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Stem using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Stem's stock price.
Stem Short Interest
An investor who is long Stem may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Stem and may potentially protect profits, hedge Stem with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 14.8143 | Short Percent 0.1217 | Short Ratio 4.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.1 M | 50 Day MA 17.366 |
Stem Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stem Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 15.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.06.Stem Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Stem's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Stem. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Stem can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Stem Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Stem's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Stem.
Stem Implied Volatility | 1.39 |
Stem's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Stem Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Stem's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Stem stock will not fluctuate a lot when Stem's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stem Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 15.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.06. Stem after-hype prediction price | USD 15.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stem to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Stem contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Stem Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0869% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Stem trading at USD 15.6, that is roughly USD 0.0136 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Stem's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Stem Inc options at the current volatility level of 1.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Stem Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Stem's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Stem's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Stem stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Stem's open interest, investors have to compare it to Stem's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Stem is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Stem. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Stem Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Stem price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stem using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stem charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Stem Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stem Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 15.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stem Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stem's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stem Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Stem | Stem Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Stem Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Stem's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stem's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.62 and 20.91, respectively. We have considered Stem's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stem stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stem stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1224 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8343 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0474 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.0551 |
Predictive Modules for Stem
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stem Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Stem's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Stem After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Stem at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stem or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Stem, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Stem Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Stem's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stem's historical news coverage. Stem's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.04 and 21.32, respectively. We have considered Stem's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Stem is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stem Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Stem Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Stem is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stem backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stem, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 5.64 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.60 | 15.68 | 0.51 |
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Stem Hype Timeline
Stem Inc is at this time traded for 15.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Stem is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 15.68 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.51%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Stem is about 6878.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.61. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 144.58 M. Net Loss for the year was (854.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 36.37 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stem to cross-verify your projections.Stem Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Stem's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stem's future price movements. Getting to know how Stem's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stem may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SANG | Sangoma Technologies Corp | 0.12 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.67 | (3.82) | 12.60 | |
| AISP | Airship AI Holdings | 0.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 8.08 | (8.70) | 29.30 | |
| ARAI | Arrive AI | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 5.35 | (9.44) | 19.29 | |
| XTKG | X3 Holdings Co | 0.08 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 10.83 | (25.00) | 147.22 | |
| ARBE | Arbe Robotics | (0.22) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.71 | (8.16) | 55.70 | |
| TEAD | Teads BV | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.97 | (9.76) | 57.23 | |
| TCX | Tucows Inc | 0.61 | 9 per month | 2.68 | 0.08 | 5.31 | (4.36) | 16.41 | |
| SVCO | Silvaco Group Common | 0.20 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.80 | (9.11) | 16.33 | |
| TTEC | TTEC Holdings | (0.08) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.23 | (5.51) | 17.83 | |
| LAWR | Robot Consulting Co | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Stem
For every potential investor in Stem, whether a beginner or expert, Stem's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stem Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stem. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stem's price trends.Stem Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stem stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stem could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stem by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stem Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stem stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stem shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stem stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stem Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17764.8 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.74) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.99 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.10) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.73 |
Stem Risk Indicators
The analysis of Stem's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stem's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stem stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.67 | |||
| Variance | 44.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Stem
The number of cover stories for Stem depends on current market conditions and Stem's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stem is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stem's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Stem Short Properties
Stem's future price predictability will typically decrease when Stem's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Stem Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Stem's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stem's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 56.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stem to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Will Electrical Components & Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Stem diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Stem. If investors know Stem will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Stem data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (13.39) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.305 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Stem Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Stem's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Stem's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Stem's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Stem is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Stem's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.