Starwood Property Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| STWD Stock | USD 18.37 0.15 0.82% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Starwood Property Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 18.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.77. Starwood Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Starwood Property stock prices and determine the direction of Starwood Property Trust's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Starwood Property's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The RSI of Starwood Property's share price is at 53. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Starwood Property, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4561 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.6857 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.8345 | Wall Street Target Price 21.25 |
Using Starwood Property hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Starwood Property Trust from the perspective of Starwood Property response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Starwood Property using Starwood Property's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Starwood using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Starwood Property's stock price.
Starwood Property Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Starwood Property's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Starwood. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Starwood Property stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 19.2482 | Short Percent 0.0364 | Short Ratio 3.86 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.7 M | 50 Day MA 18.2238 |
Starwood Property Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Starwood Property's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Starwood. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Starwood can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Starwood Property Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Starwood Property Implied Volatility | 0.36 |
Starwood Property's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Starwood Property Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Starwood Property's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Starwood Property stock will not fluctuate a lot when Starwood Property's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Starwood Property Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 18.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.77. Starwood Property after-hype prediction price | USD 18.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Starwood Property to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Starwood contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Starwood Property Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0225% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Starwood Property trading at USD 18.37, that is roughly USD 0.004133 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Starwood Property's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Starwood Property Trust options at the current volatility level of 0.36%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Starwood Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Starwood Property's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Starwood Property's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Starwood Property stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Starwood Property's open interest, investors have to compare it to Starwood Property's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Starwood Property is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Starwood. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Starwood Property Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Starwood price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Starwood using various technical indicators. When you analyze Starwood charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Starwood Property Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Starwood Property's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2009-09-30 | Previous Quarter 259.9 M | Current Value 301.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 155.4 M |
Starwood Property Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Starwood Property Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 18.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Starwood Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Starwood Property's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Starwood Property Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Starwood Property | Starwood Property Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Starwood Property Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Starwood Property's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Starwood Property's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.51 and 19.57, respectively. We have considered Starwood Property's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Starwood Property stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Starwood Property stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4834 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1414 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.7697 |
Predictive Modules for Starwood Property
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Starwood Property Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Starwood Property's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Starwood Property After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Starwood Property at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Starwood Property or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Starwood Property, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Starwood Property Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Starwood Property's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Starwood Property's historical news coverage. Starwood Property's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.35 and 19.39, respectively. We have considered Starwood Property's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Starwood Property is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Starwood Property Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Starwood Property Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Starwood Property is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Starwood Property backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Starwood Property, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.37 | 18.37 | 0.00 |
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Starwood Property Hype Timeline
Starwood Property Trust is at this time traded for 18.37. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Starwood is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Starwood Property is about 579.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.38. About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.99. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Starwood Property Trust has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.73. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The firm had 12402:10000 split on the 3rd of February 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Starwood Property to cross-verify your projections.Starwood Property Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Starwood Property's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Starwood Property's future price movements. Getting to know how Starwood Property's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Starwood Property may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RITM | Rithm Capital Corp | 0.00 | 10 per month | 0.81 | 0.07 | 2.15 | (1.62) | 5.69 | |
| FR | First Industrial Realty | 0.71 | 8 per month | 0.80 | (0.03) | 1.90 | (1.43) | 4.15 | |
| STAG | STAG Industrial | (0.58) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.27 | (1.29) | 4.09 | |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 0.98 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.88 | (2.94) | 9.20 | |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT | 0.81 | 4 per month | 1.25 | (0.0005) | 1.69 | (2.27) | 5.74 | |
| EPRT | Essential Properties Realty | 0.25 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.57 | (1.71) | 4.72 | |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | (0.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.39 | (4.81) | 14.67 | |
| TRNO | Terreno Realty | 0.25 | 12 per month | 1.10 | (0.05) | 1.90 | (1.77) | 5.62 | |
| DLR | Digital Realty Trust | (0.52) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.22 | (2.77) | 6.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Starwood Property
For every potential investor in Starwood, whether a beginner or expert, Starwood Property's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Starwood Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Starwood. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Starwood Property's price trends.Starwood Property Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Starwood Property stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Starwood Property could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Starwood Property by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Starwood Property Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Starwood Property stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Starwood Property shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Starwood Property stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Starwood Property Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Starwood Property Risk Indicators
The analysis of Starwood Property's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Starwood Property's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting starwood stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7665 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8904 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9931 | |||
| Variance | 0.9862 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9297 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7928 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Starwood Property
The number of cover stories for Starwood Property depends on current market conditions and Starwood Property's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Starwood Property is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Starwood Property's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Starwood Property Short Properties
Starwood Property's future price predictability will typically decrease when Starwood Property's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Starwood Property Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Starwood Property's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Starwood Property's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 320.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 471.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Starwood Property to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Starwood Property. If investors know Starwood will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Starwood Property listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | Dividend Share 1.92 | Earnings Share 1.03 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.67 |
The market value of Starwood Property Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Starwood that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Starwood Property's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Starwood Property's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Starwood Property's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Starwood Property's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Starwood Property's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Starwood Property is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Starwood Property's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.