Smurfit WestRock Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SW Stock | 42.54 0.42 0.98% |
Smurfit Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Smurfit WestRock's share price is at 59. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Smurfit WestRock, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6302 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.4251 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.0021 | Wall Street Target Price 52.8214 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.7234 |
Using Smurfit WestRock hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smurfit WestRock plc from the perspective of Smurfit WestRock response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Smurfit WestRock using Smurfit WestRock's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Smurfit using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Smurfit WestRock's stock price.
Smurfit WestRock Short Interest
An investor who is long Smurfit WestRock may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Smurfit WestRock and may potentially protect profits, hedge Smurfit WestRock with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 42.0098 | Short Percent 0.0506 | Short Ratio 4.51 | Shares Short Prior Month 21.9 M | 50 Day MA 37.9786 |
Smurfit Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smurfit WestRock plc on the next trading day is expected to be 42.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.10.Smurfit WestRock plc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Smurfit WestRock's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Smurfit. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Smurfit can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Smurfit WestRock plc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Smurfit WestRock's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Smurfit WestRock.
Smurfit WestRock Implied Volatility | 0.49 |
Smurfit WestRock's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Smurfit WestRock plc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Smurfit WestRock's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Smurfit WestRock stock will not fluctuate a lot when Smurfit WestRock's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smurfit WestRock plc on the next trading day is expected to be 42.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.10. Smurfit WestRock after-hype prediction price | USD 42.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smurfit WestRock to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Smurfit contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Smurfit WestRock plc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0306% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Smurfit WestRock trading at USD 42.54, that is roughly USD 0.013 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Smurfit WestRock's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Smurfit WestRock plc options at the current volatility level of 0.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Smurfit Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Smurfit WestRock's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Smurfit WestRock's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Smurfit WestRock stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Smurfit WestRock's open interest, investors have to compare it to Smurfit WestRock's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Smurfit WestRock is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Smurfit. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Smurfit WestRock Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smurfit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smurfit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smurfit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Smurfit WestRock's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2009-03-31 | Previous Quarter 778 M | Current Value 851 M | Quarterly Volatility 426.1 M |
Smurfit WestRock Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smurfit WestRock plc on the next trading day is expected to be 42.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smurfit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smurfit WestRock's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smurfit WestRock Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smurfit WestRock | Smurfit WestRock Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Smurfit WestRock Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smurfit WestRock's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smurfit WestRock's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.54 and 44.72, respectively. We have considered Smurfit WestRock's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smurfit WestRock stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smurfit WestRock stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5647 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.641 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.0987 |
Predictive Modules for Smurfit WestRock
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smurfit WestRock plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smurfit WestRock's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Smurfit WestRock After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Smurfit WestRock at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smurfit WestRock or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Smurfit WestRock, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Smurfit WestRock Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Smurfit WestRock's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smurfit WestRock's historical news coverage. Smurfit WestRock's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.72 and 44.90, respectively. We have considered Smurfit WestRock's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Smurfit WestRock is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smurfit WestRock plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Smurfit WestRock Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Smurfit WestRock is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smurfit WestRock backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smurfit WestRock, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 2.09 | 0.33 | 0.71 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.54 | 42.81 | 0.35 |
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Smurfit WestRock Hype Timeline
As of January 28, 2026 Smurfit WestRock plc is listed for 42.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.71. Smurfit is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 42.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Smurfit WestRock is about 96.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.83. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.23. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Smurfit WestRock plc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.28. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smurfit WestRock to cross-verify your projections.Smurfit WestRock Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Smurfit WestRock's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smurfit WestRock's future price movements. Getting to know how Smurfit WestRock's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smurfit WestRock may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PKG | Packaging Corp of | 0.29 | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.03 | 2.94 | (2.32) | 8.20 | |
| AMCR | Amcor PLC | (1.40) | 8 per month | 1.75 | 0.06 | 2.53 | (1.88) | 10.51 | |
| IP | International Paper | (0.21) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.10 | (3.90) | 15.04 | |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corp | 5.22 | 8 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 3.09 | (2.19) | 7.40 | |
| IHG | InterContinental Hotels Group | (0.19) | 6 per month | 1.09 | 0.04 | 2.69 | (2.04) | 7.94 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | 1.14 | 10 per month | 1.38 | 0.08 | 2.23 | (2.06) | 9.89 | |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | 0.58 | 8 per month | 1.33 | 0.11 | 3.01 | (2.09) | 7.45 | |
| LULU | Lululemon Athletica | (9.48) | 8 per month | 2.45 | 0.02 | 3.49 | (3.90) | 16.10 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.75) | 12 per month | 1.31 | 0.01 | 2.82 | (1.86) | 7.35 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | (16.86) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.66 | (2.08) | 5.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Smurfit WestRock
For every potential investor in Smurfit, whether a beginner or expert, Smurfit WestRock's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smurfit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smurfit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smurfit WestRock's price trends.Smurfit WestRock Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smurfit WestRock stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smurfit WestRock could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smurfit WestRock by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smurfit WestRock Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smurfit WestRock stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smurfit WestRock shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smurfit WestRock stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smurfit WestRock plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 42.54 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 42.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.21) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.42) |
Smurfit WestRock Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smurfit WestRock's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smurfit WestRock's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smurfit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Variance | 6.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Smurfit WestRock
The number of cover stories for Smurfit WestRock depends on current market conditions and Smurfit WestRock's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smurfit WestRock is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smurfit WestRock's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Smurfit WestRock Short Properties
Smurfit WestRock's future price predictability will typically decrease when Smurfit WestRock's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Smurfit WestRock plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Smurfit WestRock's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smurfit WestRock's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 389 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 855 M |
Additional Tools for Smurfit Stock Analysis
When running Smurfit WestRock's price analysis, check to measure Smurfit WestRock's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Smurfit WestRock is operating at the current time. Most of Smurfit WestRock's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Smurfit WestRock's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Smurfit WestRock's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Smurfit WestRock to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.