Triumph Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Triumph price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Triumph Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Triumph Group on the next trading day is expected to be 365.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 60.34, mean absolute percentage error of 4,540, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,681.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triumph stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triumph stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Triumph Group historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Triumph

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triumph Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 285.33 287.07 288.81 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 189.13 190.87 316.14 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 254.34 273.23 292.11 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Triumph. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Triumph's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Triumph's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Triumph Group.

Triumph Related Equities

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