Triad Guaranty Stock Forward View
| TGIC Stock | USD 0.0001 0.00 0.00% |
Triad Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Triad Guaranty stock prices and determine the direction of Triad Guaranty's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Triad Guaranty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Triad Guaranty's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 6 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.45) |
Using Triad Guaranty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triad Guaranty from the perspective of Triad Guaranty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triad Guaranty on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.000023 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Triad Guaranty after-hype prediction price | USD 1.05E-4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triad Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. Triad Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Triad price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triad using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triad charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triad Guaranty Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Triad Guaranty's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2007-03-31 | Previous Quarter 36 M | Current Value 32.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 24.7 M |
Triad Guaranty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triad Guaranty on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.000023, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triad Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triad Guaranty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Triad Guaranty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Triad Guaranty | Triad Guaranty Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Triad Guaranty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Triad Guaranty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Triad Guaranty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.000001 and 8.61, respectively. We have considered Triad Guaranty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triad Guaranty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triad Guaranty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 97.4765 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1415 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0014 |
Predictive Modules for Triad Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triad Guaranty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Triad Guaranty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Triad Guaranty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triad Guaranty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triad Guaranty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Triad Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Triad Guaranty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triad Guaranty's historical news coverage. Triad Guaranty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 8.54, respectively. We have considered Triad Guaranty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Triad Guaranty is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triad Guaranty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Triad Guaranty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triad Guaranty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triad Guaranty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triad Guaranty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.11 | 8.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.0001 | 0.0001 | 5.44 |
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Triad Guaranty Hype Timeline
Triad Guaranty is at this time traded for 0.0001. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Triad is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.05E-4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is forecasted to be 5.44%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -1.11%. The volatility of related hype on Triad Guaranty is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.00. Triad Guaranty currently holds about 79.34 M in cash with (76.61 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.16, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triad Guaranty to cross-verify your projections.Triad Guaranty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Triad Guaranty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triad Guaranty's future price movements. Getting to know how Triad Guaranty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triad Guaranty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XSVT | Xsovt Brands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MAJCQ | Majestic Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |
| TCNT | Toucan Interactive Corp | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 66.67 | |
| AFCL | Amcor Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NOHO | Novation Hldgs | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| YSGG | 1399 Internet Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EPORP | Epic Corp 5 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| JPPYY | Jupai Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.21 | 33.33 | 0.00 | 4,548 | |
| CDIV | Cascadia Investments | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2,997 | |
| GOOI | Gooi Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Triad Guaranty
For every potential investor in Triad, whether a beginner or expert, Triad Guaranty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Triad Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Triad. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Triad Guaranty's price trends.Triad Guaranty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Triad Guaranty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Triad Guaranty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triad Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Triad Guaranty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triad Guaranty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triad Guaranty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triad Guaranty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triad Guaranty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.0E-4 |
Triad Guaranty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Triad Guaranty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Triad Guaranty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting triad stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.21 | |||
| Variance | 67.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Triad Guaranty
The number of cover stories for Triad Guaranty depends on current market conditions and Triad Guaranty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Triad Guaranty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Triad Guaranty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triad Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Triad Stock refer to our How to Trade Triad Stock guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Will Thrifts & Mortgage Finance sector continue expanding? Could Triad diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triad Guaranty. If investors know Triad will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Triad Guaranty data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Triad Guaranty's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Triad's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Triad Guaranty's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Triad Guaranty's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triad Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triad Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triad Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.