Triad Guaranty Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TGIC Stock | USD 0.0002 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triad Guaranty on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0002 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Triad Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Triad Guaranty stock prices and determine the direction of Triad Guaranty's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Triad Guaranty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Triad |
Triad Guaranty Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Triad Guaranty's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2007-03-31 | Previous Quarter 36 M | Current Value 32.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 24.7 M |
Triad Guaranty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Triad Guaranty on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0002 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triad Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triad Guaranty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Triad Guaranty Stock Forecast Pattern
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Triad Guaranty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Triad Guaranty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Triad Guaranty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0002 and 0.0002, respectively. We have considered Triad Guaranty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triad Guaranty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triad Guaranty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 31.7713 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0 |
Predictive Modules for Triad Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triad Guaranty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Triad Guaranty
For every potential investor in Triad, whether a beginner or expert, Triad Guaranty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Triad Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Triad. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Triad Guaranty's price trends.Triad Guaranty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Triad Guaranty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Triad Guaranty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triad Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Triad Guaranty Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Triad Guaranty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Triad Guaranty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Triad Guaranty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triad Guaranty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triad Guaranty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triad Guaranty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triad Guaranty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.0E-4 |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Triad Guaranty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Triad Guaranty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Triad Guaranty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Triad Guaranty Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triad Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Triad Stock refer to our How to Trade Triad Stock guide.You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Is Thrifts & Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triad Guaranty. If investors know Triad will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triad Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.02) | Revenue Per Share 11.516 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.45) | Return On Assets (0.10) |
The market value of Triad Guaranty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triad that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triad Guaranty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triad Guaranty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triad Guaranty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triad Guaranty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triad Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triad Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triad Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.