Target Hospitality Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TH Stock | USD 7.66 0.14 1.86% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Target Hospitality Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.44. Target Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Target Hospitality's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Target Hospitality's share price is approaching 45. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Target Hospitality, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.30) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.20) | Wall Street Target Price 10.5 |
Using Target Hospitality hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Target Hospitality Corp from the perspective of Target Hospitality response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Target Hospitality using Target Hospitality's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Target using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Target Hospitality's stock price.
Target Hospitality Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Target Hospitality's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Target. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Target Hospitality stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 7.6366 | Short Percent 0.0783 | Short Ratio 7.27 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 7.7642 |
Target Hospitality Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Target Hospitality's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Target. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Target can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Target Hospitality Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Target Hospitality Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Target Hospitality's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Target Hospitality Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Target Hospitality's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Target Hospitality stock will not fluctuate a lot when Target Hospitality's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Target Hospitality Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.44. Target Hospitality after-hype prediction price | USD 7.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Target Hospitality to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Target contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Target Hospitality Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Target Hospitality trading at USD 7.66, that is roughly USD 0.003112 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Target Hospitality's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Target Hospitality Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Target Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Target Hospitality's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Target Hospitality's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Target Hospitality stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Target Hospitality's open interest, investors have to compare it to Target Hospitality's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Target Hospitality is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Target. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Target Hospitality Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Target price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Target using various technical indicators. When you analyze Target charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Target Hospitality Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Target Hospitality's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2017-03-31 | Previous Quarter 19.2 M | Current Value 30.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 63.5 M |
Target Hospitality Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Target Hospitality Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Target Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Target Hospitality's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Target Hospitality Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Target Hospitality | Target Hospitality Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Target Hospitality Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Target Hospitality's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Target Hospitality's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.99 and 11.07, respectively. We have considered Target Hospitality's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Target Hospitality stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Target Hospitality stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.679 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2652 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0351 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.444 |
Predictive Modules for Target Hospitality
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Target Hospitality Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Target Hospitality After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Target Hospitality at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Target Hospitality or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Target Hospitality, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Target Hospitality Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Target Hospitality's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Target Hospitality's historical news coverage. Target Hospitality's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.62 and 10.70, respectively. We have considered Target Hospitality's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Target Hospitality is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Target Hospitality Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Target Hospitality Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Target Hospitality is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Target Hospitality backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Target Hospitality, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 3.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 26 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 26 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.66 | 7.66 | 0.00 |
|
Target Hospitality Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 Target Hospitality Corp is listed for 7.66. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Target is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Target Hospitality is about 3009.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.65. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.9. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Target Hospitality Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.34. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.1. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Target Hospitality had 5:1 split on the 6th of September 2012. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 26 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Target Hospitality to cross-verify your projections.Target Hospitality Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Target Hospitality's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Target Hospitality's future price movements. Getting to know how Target Hospitality's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Target Hospitality may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NAT | Nordic American Tankers | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.1 | 3.18 | (2.31) | 9.72 | |
| BWMN | Bowman Consulting Group | (0.35) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.29 | (5.57) | 26.93 | |
| GLDD | Great Lakes Dredge | (0.08) | 31 per month | 1.34 | 0.18 | 4.74 | (3.02) | 15.87 | |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises | (0.27) | 9 per month | 3.07 | 0 | 4.04 | (3.14) | 17.93 | |
| NPK | National Presto Industries | (0.15) | 17 per month | 2.04 | 0.05 | 2.80 | (2.71) | 10.36 | |
| VLRS | Volaris | (0.08) | 5 per month | 2.26 | 0.13 | 6.58 | (4.72) | 19.39 | |
| PRSU | Pursuit Attractions and | (0.13) | 8 per month | 2.71 | (0.02) | 3.74 | (3.84) | 16.61 | |
| SERV | Serve Robotics Common | (0.08) | 3 per month | 5.34 | (0.01) | 10.62 | (9.56) | 28.21 | |
| MRTN | Marten Transport | (0.09) | 5 per month | 1.73 | 0.09 | 4.33 | (2.17) | 9.95 | |
| GNK | Genco Shipping Trading | 0.23 | 7 per month | 1.15 | 0.13 | 3.90 | (1.92) | 11.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Target Hospitality
For every potential investor in Target, whether a beginner or expert, Target Hospitality's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Target Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Target. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Target Hospitality's price trends.Target Hospitality Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Target Hospitality stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Target Hospitality could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Target Hospitality by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Target Hospitality Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Target Hospitality stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Target Hospitality shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Target Hospitality stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Target Hospitality Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Target Hospitality Risk Indicators
The analysis of Target Hospitality's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Target Hospitality's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting target stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Variance | 8.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.07) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Target Hospitality
The number of cover stories for Target Hospitality depends on current market conditions and Target Hospitality's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Target Hospitality is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Target Hospitality's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Target Hospitality Short Properties
Target Hospitality's future price predictability will typically decrease when Target Hospitality's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Target Hospitality Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Target Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Target Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 190.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Target Hospitality to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Target Hospitality. If investors know Target will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Target Hospitality listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | Earnings Share (0.10) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.044 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Target Hospitality Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Target that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Target Hospitality's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Target Hospitality's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Target Hospitality's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Target Hospitality's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Target Hospitality's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Target Hospitality is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Target Hospitality's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.