Treace Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TMCI Stock | USD 2.58 0.11 4.09% |
Treace Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Treace Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Treace Medical's share price is approaching 30. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Treace Medical, making its price go up or down. Momentum 30
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0073 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.93) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.68) | Wall Street Target Price 4.87 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.27) |
Using Treace Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Treace Medical Concepts from the perspective of Treace Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Treace Medical using Treace Medical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Treace using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Treace Medical's stock price.
Treace Medical Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Treace Medical's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Treace. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Treace Medical stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 5.5041 | Short Percent 0.0654 | Short Ratio 3.6 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | 50 Day MA 2.7473 |
Treace Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Treace Medical Concepts on the next trading day is expected to be 2.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.42.Treace Medical Concepts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Treace Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Treace. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Treace can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Treace Medical Concepts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Treace Medical's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Treace Medical.
Treace Medical Implied Volatility | 1.87 |
Treace Medical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Treace Medical Concepts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Treace Medical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Treace Medical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Treace Medical's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Treace Medical Concepts on the next trading day is expected to be 2.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.42. Treace Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 2.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Treace Medical to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Treace Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Treace Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Treace Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Treace Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Treace Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Treace Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Treace Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Treace. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Treace Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Treace price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Treace using various technical indicators. When you analyze Treace charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Treace Medical Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Treace Medical's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 8.1 M | Current Value 7.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 43.4 M |
Treace Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Treace Medical Concepts on the next trading day is expected to be 2.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Treace Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Treace Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Treace Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Treace Medical | Treace Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Treace Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Treace Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Treace Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.21, respectively. We have considered Treace Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Treace Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Treace Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1987 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2692 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.077 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.4224 |
Predictive Modules for Treace Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Treace Medical Concepts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Treace Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Treace Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Treace Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Treace Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Treace Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Treace Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Treace Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Treace Medical's historical news coverage. Treace Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.13 and 8.15, respectively. We have considered Treace Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Treace Medical is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Treace Medical Concepts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Treace Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Treace Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Treace Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Treace Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.39 | 5.54 | 0.03 | 7.66 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.58 | 2.61 | 1.16 |
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Treace Medical Hype Timeline
Treace Medical Concepts is at this time traded for 2.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 7.66. Treace is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 2.61 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.16%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -1.39%. The volatility of related hype on Treace Medical is about 100.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.24. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 209.36 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.74 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 174.83 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Treace Medical to cross-verify your projections.Treace Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Treace Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Treace Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Treace Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Treace Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KIDS | Orthopediatrics Corp | 0.13 | 10 per month | 2.24 | (0) | 3.72 | (3.29) | 16.89 | |
| CBLL | CeriBell | 0.09 | 9 per month | 2.14 | 0.25 | 7.04 | (3.94) | 16.78 | |
| SRDX | SurModics | 0.39 | 7 per month | 1.26 | 0.07 | 2.09 | (2.90) | 49.69 | |
| TOI | Oncology Institute | (0.16) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.53 | (8.31) | 42.16 | |
| RXST | Rxsight | (0.30) | 8 per month | 3.59 | 0.04 | 7.97 | (5.79) | 23.38 | |
| BVS | Bioventus | 0.09 | 7 per month | 2.13 | 0.05 | 5.12 | (3.49) | 22.05 | |
| LAB | Standard Biotools | 0.03 | 15 per month | 3.60 | 0.07 | 7.81 | (6.30) | 23.52 | |
| EOLS | Evolus Inc | 0.05 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.43 | (5.29) | 19.71 | |
| SMLR | Semler Scientific | 54.75 | 10 per month | 4.88 | 0.12 | 18.45 | (10.61) | 1,710 | |
| EHAB | Enhabit | 0.06 | 10 per month | 1.82 | 0.13 | 4.81 | (3.40) | 11.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Treace Medical
For every potential investor in Treace, whether a beginner or expert, Treace Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Treace Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Treace. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Treace Medical's price trends.Treace Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Treace Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Treace Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Treace Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Treace Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Treace Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Treace Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Treace Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Treace Medical Concepts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Treace Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Treace Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Treace Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting treace stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.39 | |||
| Variance | 29.09 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Treace Medical
The number of cover stories for Treace Medical depends on current market conditions and Treace Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Treace Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Treace Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Treace Medical Short Properties
Treace Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Treace Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Treace Medical Concepts often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Treace Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Treace Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Treace Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Treace Medical. If investors know Treace will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Treace Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.80) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.114 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Treace Medical Concepts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Treace that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Treace Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Treace Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Treace Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Treace Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Treace Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Treace Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Treace Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.