Tractor Supply Stock Forward View
| TSCO Stock | USD 55.61 1.13 2.07% |
Tractor Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Tractor Supply's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Tractor Supply hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tractor Supply from the perspective of Tractor Supply response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tractor Supply on the next trading day is expected to be 53.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.17. Tractor Supply after-hype prediction price | USD 54.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tractor Supply to cross-verify your projections. Tractor Supply Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tractor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tractor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tractor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tractor Supply Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tractor Supply on the next trading day is expected to be 53.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tractor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tractor Supply's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tractor Supply Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tractor Supply | Tractor Supply Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Tractor Supply Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tractor Supply's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tractor Supply's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.79 and 55.54, respectively. We have considered Tractor Supply's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tractor Supply stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tractor Supply stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2412 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8389 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.1707 |
Predictive Modules for Tractor Supply
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tractor Supply. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tractor Supply's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tractor Supply After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tractor Supply at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tractor Supply or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tractor Supply, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tractor Supply Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tractor Supply's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tractor Supply's historical news coverage. Tractor Supply's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.60 and 56.34, respectively. We have considered Tractor Supply's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tractor Supply is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tractor Supply is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tractor Supply Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tractor Supply is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tractor Supply backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tractor Supply, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
55.61 | 54.47 | 0.02 |
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Tractor Supply Hype Timeline
Tractor Supply is at this time traded for 55.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Tractor is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 54.47. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Tractor Supply is about 250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.63. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.32. Tractor Supply last dividend was issued on the 24th of November 2025. The entity had 5:1 split on the 20th of December 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tractor Supply to cross-verify your projections.Tractor Supply Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tractor Supply's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tractor Supply's future price movements. Getting to know how Tractor Supply's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tractor Supply may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | 8.54 | 8 per month | 1.61 | 0.07 | 3.85 | (2.83) | 7.84 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | (1.17) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.17 | 2.81 | (2.03) | 16.26 | |
| VIK | Viking Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | 0.15 | 5.05 | (2.50) | 9.58 | |
| EXPE | Expedia Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.08 | (3.12) | 20.67 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | (8.10) | 9 per month | 1.19 | 0.19 | 2.70 | (2.03) | 9.89 | |
| ROL | Rollins | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | 0.08 | 1.51 | (1.40) | 6.01 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.15 | 3.24 | (1.66) | 7.35 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | (0.33) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.61 | (2.85) | 10.22 | |
| EBAY | eBay Inc | 8.54 | 10 per month | 1.89 | 0.0002 | 2.81 | (3.25) | 11.00 | |
| LEN | Lennar | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.40 | (3.47) | 11.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tractor Supply
For every potential investor in Tractor, whether a beginner or expert, Tractor Supply's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tractor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tractor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tractor Supply's price trends.Tractor Supply Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tractor Supply stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tractor Supply could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tractor Supply by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tractor Supply Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tractor Supply stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tractor Supply shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tractor Supply stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tractor Supply entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 198838.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6141 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 54.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 55.03 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.44 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.13 |
Tractor Supply Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tractor Supply's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tractor Supply's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tractor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tractor Supply
The number of cover stories for Tractor Supply depends on current market conditions and Tractor Supply's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tractor Supply is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tractor Supply's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tractor Supply Short Properties
Tractor Supply's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tractor Supply's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tractor Supply often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tractor Supply's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tractor Supply's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 532.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 194.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tractor Supply to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Tractor Stock, please use our How to Invest in Tractor Supply guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Will Other Specialty Retail sector continue expanding? Could Tractor diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tractor Supply. If investors know Tractor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Tractor Supply data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Tractor Supply requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Tractor's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Tractor Supply's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Tractor Supply's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tractor Supply's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tractor Supply is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Tractor Supply's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.