Union Bankshares Stock Forward View
| UNB Stock | USD 24.89 0.27 1.10% |
Union Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Union Bankshares stock prices and determine the direction of Union Bankshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Union Bankshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Union Bankshares' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.586 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.338 |
Using Union Bankshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Union Bankshares from the perspective of Union Bankshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Union Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 24.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.35. Union Bankshares after-hype prediction price | USD 24.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Bankshares to cross-verify your projections. Union Bankshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Union price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Union using various technical indicators. When you analyze Union charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Union Bankshares Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Union Bankshares' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2000-03-31 | Previous Quarter 11.7 M | Current Value 13.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 4.9 M |
Union Bankshares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Union Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 24.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Union Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Union Bankshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Union Bankshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Union Bankshares | Union Bankshares Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Union Bankshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Union Bankshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Union Bankshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.88 and 26.77, respectively. We have considered Union Bankshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Union Bankshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Union Bankshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2393 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3172 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.3463 |
Predictive Modules for Union Bankshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Bankshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Union Bankshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Union Bankshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Union Bankshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Union Bankshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Union Bankshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Union Bankshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Union Bankshares' historical news coverage. Union Bankshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.96 and 26.82, respectively. We have considered Union Bankshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Union Bankshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Union Bankshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Union Bankshares Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Union Bankshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Union Bankshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Union Bankshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.94 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.89 | 24.89 | 0.00 |
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Union Bankshares Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Union Bankshares is traded for 24.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Union is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Union Bankshares is about 1940.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.87. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.46. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Union Bankshares last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The entity had 3:2 split on the 11th of August 2003. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Bankshares to cross-verify your projections.Union Bankshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Union Bankshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Union Bankshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Union Bankshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Union Bankshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | (0.1) | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.02 | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 | |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp | 0.11 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.00 | (1.04) | 6.34 | |
| FGBI | First Guaranty Bancshares | (0.18) | 10 per month | 4.71 | 0.03 | 5.38 | (7.07) | 21.15 | |
| SBFG | SB Financial Group | (0.25) | 3 per month | 2.23 | 0.1 | 4.58 | (3.96) | 10.33 | |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.55 | (0.02) | 3.33 | (2.50) | 9.27 | |
| AFBI | Affinity Bancshares | (0.05) | 7 per month | 1.27 | 0.04 | 2.12 | (2.06) | 13.88 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | (0.20) | 6 per month | 0.81 | 0.16 | 2.05 | (1.48) | 5.78 | |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp Common | 0.24 | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.11 | 2.51 | (1.36) | 8.56 | |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.76 | 0 | 1.34 | (1.04) | 4.66 | |
| PNBK | Patriot National Bancorp | (0.73) | 9 per month | 4.00 | 0.09 | 6.98 | (6.40) | 17.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Union Bankshares
For every potential investor in Union, whether a beginner or expert, Union Bankshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Union Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Union. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Union Bankshares' price trends.Union Bankshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Union Bankshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Union Bankshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Union Bankshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Union Bankshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Union Bankshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Union Bankshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Union Bankshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Union Bankshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Union Bankshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Union Bankshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Union Bankshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting union stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Union Bankshares
The number of cover stories for Union Bankshares depends on current market conditions and Union Bankshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Union Bankshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Union Bankshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Bankshares to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Union Stock refer to our How to Trade Union Stock guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Union Bankshares. If investors know Union will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Union Bankshares assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.586 | Dividend Share 1.44 | Earnings Share 2.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.338 |
Understanding Union Bankshares requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Union's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Union Bankshares' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Union Bankshares' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Bankshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Union Bankshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Union Bankshares' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.