US Bancorp Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| USB Stock | USD 56.11 0.22 0.39% |
USB Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast US Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of US Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of US Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of US Bancorp's stock price is about 63. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling USB, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using US Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of US Bancorp from the perspective of US Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of US Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 56.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.88. US Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 56.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. US Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine USB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for USB using various technical indicators. When you analyze USB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
US Bancorp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of US Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 56.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict USB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that US Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
US Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest US Bancorp | US Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
US Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting US Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. US Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.19 and 57.63, respectively. We have considered US Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of US Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent US Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1336 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4895 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0094 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.88 |
Predictive Modules for US Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of US Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
US Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of US Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in US Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of US Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
US Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting US Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on US Bancorp's historical news coverage. US Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.27 and 57.71, respectively. We have considered US Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
US Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of US Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
US Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as US Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading US Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with US Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
56.11 | 56.49 | 0.28 |
|
US Bancorp Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February US Bancorp is traded for 56.11. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. USB is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 56.49 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on US Bancorp is about 1016.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.15. The company reported the last year's revenue of 42.86 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 7.57 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 26.35 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.US Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to US Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict US Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how US Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how US Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PNC | PNC Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.56 | 0.25 | 2.28 | (1.53) | 5.33 | |
| DB | Deutsche Bank AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.83 | 0.05 | 2.71 | (3.03) | 8.60 | |
| LYG | Lloyds Banking Group | 0.60 | 1 per month | 1.09 | 0.22 | 2.41 | (2.11) | 6.27 | |
| ITUB | Itau Unibanco Banco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.70 | 0.20 | 3.96 | (2.50) | 9.71 | |
| TFC | Truist Financial Corp | 0.60 | 4 per month | 0.68 | 0.18 | 2.01 | (1.17) | 5.12 | |
| ING | ING Group NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.19 | 2.58 | (1.71) | 5.52 | |
| MFG | Mizuho Financial Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.24 | 2.83 | (2.03) | 7.66 | |
| BCS | Barclays PLC ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.23 | 2.70 | (2.35) | 5.54 | |
| HDB | HDFC Bank Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.24 | (1.92) | 8.44 | |
| CM | Canadian Imperial Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.15 | 2.06 | (1.92) | 7.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for US Bancorp
For every potential investor in USB, whether a beginner or expert, US Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. USB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in USB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying US Bancorp's price trends.US Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with US Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of US Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing US Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
US Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how US Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading US Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying US Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify US Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
US Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of US Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in US Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting usb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8974 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7791 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6071 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for US Bancorp
The number of cover stories for US Bancorp depends on current market conditions and US Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that US Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about US Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
US Bancorp Short Properties
US Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when US Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of US Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential US Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. US Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.9 B | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 2.04 | |
| Shares Float | 1.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade USB Stock refer to our How to Trade USB Stock guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of US Bancorp. If investors know USB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive US Bancorp assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate US Bancorp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating US Bancorp's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause US Bancorp's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between US Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if US Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, US Bancorp's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.