Virginia National Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VABK Stock | USD 40.65 0.27 0.66% |
Virginia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Virginia National's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Virginia National's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Virginia National fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Virginia National's share price is at 51. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Virginia National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.295 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 |
Using Virginia National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virginia National Bankshares from the perspective of Virginia National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virginia National Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 40.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.00. Virginia National after-hype prediction price | USD 41.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virginia National to cross-verify your projections. Virginia National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Virginia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virginia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virginia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virginia National Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virginia National Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 40.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virginia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virginia National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virginia National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Virginia National | Virginia National Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Virginia National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virginia National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virginia National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.69 and 42.61, respectively. We have considered Virginia National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virginia National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virginia National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7703 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0163 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6167 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0152 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.0 |
Predictive Modules for Virginia National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virginia National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Virginia National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Virginia National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virginia National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Virginia National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Virginia National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Virginia National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virginia National's historical news coverage. Virginia National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.87 and 43.79, respectively. We have considered Virginia National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Virginia National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virginia National is based on 3 months time horizon.
Virginia National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Virginia National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virginia National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virginia National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.96 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
40.65 | 41.83 | 0.40 |
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Virginia National Hype Timeline
Virginia National is at this time traded for 40.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Virginia is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 41.83. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 123.27%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.4%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Virginia National is about 439.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.70. About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.2. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Virginia National last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2026. The entity had 105:100 split on the 2nd of April 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virginia National to cross-verify your projections.Virginia National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Virginia National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virginia National's future price movements. Getting to know how Virginia National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virginia National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FVCB | FVCBankcorp | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.95 | 0.16 | 2.70 | (1.67) | 9.86 | |
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares | 0.1 | 10 per month | 1.98 | 0.10 | 4.15 | (4.01) | 12.58 | |
| CFFI | CF Financial | 1.20 | 9 per month | 1.67 | 0.07 | 3.53 | (2.75) | 8.22 | |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial | 0.34 | 7 per month | 1.29 | 0.07 | 2.88 | (1.96) | 9.58 | |
| AVBH | Avidbank Holdings Common | (0.38) | 29 per month | 0.68 | 0.14 | 2.67 | (1.55) | 6.08 | |
| FCCO | First Community | (0.25) | 7 per month | 1.08 | 0.05 | 2.21 | (2.29) | 6.74 | |
| BPRN | Bank Of Princeton | (0.24) | 8 per month | 1.31 | 0.13 | 3.27 | (2.68) | 9.93 | |
| FUNC | First United | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.66 | 0.06 | 3.21 | (2.74) | 11.47 | |
| LCNB | LCNB Corporation | 0.58 | 6 per month | 1.32 | 0.09 | 2.81 | (2.13) | 8.02 | |
| FRAF | Franklin Financial Services | 3.31 | 9 per month | 2.21 | 0.05 | 3.20 | (2.67) | 15.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Virginia National
For every potential investor in Virginia, whether a beginner or expert, Virginia National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virginia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virginia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virginia National's price trends.Virginia National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virginia National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virginia National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virginia National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virginia National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virginia National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virginia National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virginia National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Virginia National Bankshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Virginia National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virginia National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virginia National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virginia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Virginia National
The number of cover stories for Virginia National depends on current market conditions and Virginia National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virginia National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virginia National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Virginia National Short Properties
Virginia National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Virginia National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Virginia National Bankshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Virginia National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Virginia National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.4 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -7.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virginia National to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Virginia National. If investors know Virginia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Virginia National assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.295 | Dividend Share 1.41 | Earnings Share 3.55 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 |
Virginia National's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Virginia's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Virginia National's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Virginia National's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virginia National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virginia National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virginia National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.