Vale SA Stock Forecast - Accumulation Distribution
| VALE Stock | USD 16.44 0.74 4.71% |
Vale Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vale SA stock prices and determine the direction of Vale SA ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vale SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Vale SA's share price is above 70 at the present time. This entails that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Vale, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.091 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5333 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1281 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1602 | Wall Street Target Price 14.8 |
Using Vale SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vale SA ADR from the perspective of Vale SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vale SA using Vale SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vale using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vale SA's stock price.
Vale SA Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Vale SA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Vale. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Vale SA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 10.9232 | Short Percent 0.0168 | Short Ratio 2.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 66.8 M | 50 Day MA 13.2492 |
Vale Relative Strength Index
Vale SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vale SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vale. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vale can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vale SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vale SA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vale SA.
Vale SA Implied Volatility | 0.44 |
Vale SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vale SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vale SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vale SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vale SA's options are near their expiration.
Vale SA after-hype prediction price | USD 16.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vale SA to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vale contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vale SA ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0275% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Vale SA trading at USD 16.44, that is roughly USD 0.004521 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vale SA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vale SA ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.44%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Vale Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vale SA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vale SA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vale SA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vale SA's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vale SA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vale SA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vale. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Vale SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vale price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vale using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vale charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Check Vale SA Volatility | Backtest Vale SA | Information Ratio |
Vale SA Trading Date Momentum
| On January 27 2026 Vale SA ADR was traded for 16.44 at the closing time. The top price for the day was 16.54 and the lowest listed price was 16.07 . The trading volume for the day was 38.4 M. The trading history from January 27, 2026 did not result in any price rise and fall. The trading price change against the current closing price is 2.01% . |
Accumulation distribution indicator can signal that a trend is either nearing completion, at a continuation, or is about to break-outs. The actual value of this indicator is of no significance. What is significant is the change in value of over time. The formula for A/D of a given trading day can be expressed as follow: ((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low) X Volume
| Compare Vale SA to competition |
Other Forecasting Options for Vale SA
For every potential investor in Vale, whether a beginner or expert, Vale SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vale Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vale. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vale SA's price trends.Vale SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vale SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vale SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vale SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vale SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vale SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vale SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vale SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vale SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vale SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vale SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vale SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vale stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.45 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vale SA
The number of cover stories for Vale SA depends on current market conditions and Vale SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vale SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vale SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vale SA Short Properties
Vale SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vale SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vale SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vale SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vale SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vale SA to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vale SA. If investors know Vale will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vale SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.091 | Dividend Share 1.25 | Earnings Share 1.29 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.07 |
The market value of Vale SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vale that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vale SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vale SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vale SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vale SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vale SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vale SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vale SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.