Virco Manufacturing Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VIRC Stock | USD 6.99 0.37 5.59% |
Virco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Virco Manufacturing stock prices and determine the direction of Virco Manufacturing's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Virco Manufacturing's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Virco Manufacturing's share price is at 56. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Virco Manufacturing, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.71 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.78 | Wall Street Target Price 7.3 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.47 |
Using Virco Manufacturing hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virco Manufacturing from the perspective of Virco Manufacturing response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Virco Manufacturing using Virco Manufacturing's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Virco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Virco Manufacturing's stock price.
Virco Manufacturing Implied Volatility | 1.12 |
Virco Manufacturing's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Virco Manufacturing stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Virco Manufacturing's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Virco Manufacturing stock will not fluctuate a lot when Virco Manufacturing's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virco Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 6.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.26. Virco Manufacturing after-hype prediction price | USD 6.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virco Manufacturing to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Virco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Virco Manufacturing's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Virco Manufacturing's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Virco Manufacturing stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Virco Manufacturing's open interest, investors have to compare it to Virco Manufacturing's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Virco Manufacturing is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Virco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Virco Manufacturing Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Virco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virco Manufacturing Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virco Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 6.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virco Manufacturing's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virco Manufacturing Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Virco Manufacturing | Virco Manufacturing Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Virco Manufacturing Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virco Manufacturing's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virco Manufacturing's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.65 and 9.33, respectively. We have considered Virco Manufacturing's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virco Manufacturing stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virco Manufacturing stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4005 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0043 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.119 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.26 |
Predictive Modules for Virco Manufacturing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virco Manufacturing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Virco Manufacturing After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Virco Manufacturing at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virco Manufacturing or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Virco Manufacturing, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Virco Manufacturing Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Virco Manufacturing's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virco Manufacturing's historical news coverage. Virco Manufacturing's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.65 and 9.33, respectively. We have considered Virco Manufacturing's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Virco Manufacturing is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virco Manufacturing is based on 3 months time horizon.
Virco Manufacturing Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Virco Manufacturing is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virco Manufacturing backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virco Manufacturing, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.99 | 6.99 | 0.00 |
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Virco Manufacturing Hype Timeline
Virco Manufacturing is at this time traded for 6.99. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Virco is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Virco Manufacturing is about 2089.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.99. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.92. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Virco Manufacturing last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2025. The entity had 11:10 split on the 4th of September 2002. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virco Manufacturing to cross-verify your projections.Virco Manufacturing Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Virco Manufacturing's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virco Manufacturing's future price movements. Getting to know how Virco Manufacturing's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virco Manufacturing may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KEQU | Kewaunee Scientific | 0.27 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.21 | (2.95) | 10.57 | |
| SNBR | Sleep Number Corp | (0.26) | 7 per month | 4.08 | 0.16 | 13.66 | (7.65) | 26.77 | |
| COOK | Traeger | 0.20 | 10 per month | 5.04 | 0.03 | 10.99 | (9.80) | 37.58 | |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries | (0.02) | 9 per month | 1.65 | (0.01) | 3.13 | (3.24) | 9.55 | |
| HOFT | Hooker Furniture | 0.09 | 8 per month | 1.92 | 0.24 | 4.90 | (3.41) | 14.96 | |
| IRBT | IRobot | 0.09 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 21.78 | (33.87) | 146.53 | |
| PRPL | Purple Innovation | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.25 | (5.48) | 27.01 | |
| FOSL | Fossil Group | (0.16) | 8 per month | 4.41 | 0.15 | 9.27 | (9.09) | 26.80 | |
| CJET | Chijet Motor Company | 0.11 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.40) | 9.23 | (22.15) | 60.91 | |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries | 0.82 | 8 per month | 1.81 | 0.04 | 5.22 | (3.18) | 9.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Virco Manufacturing
For every potential investor in Virco, whether a beginner or expert, Virco Manufacturing's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virco Manufacturing's price trends.Virco Manufacturing Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virco Manufacturing stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virco Manufacturing could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virco Manufacturing by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virco Manufacturing Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virco Manufacturing stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virco Manufacturing shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virco Manufacturing stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Virco Manufacturing entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Virco Manufacturing Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virco Manufacturing's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virco Manufacturing's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.66 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Virco Manufacturing
The number of cover stories for Virco Manufacturing depends on current market conditions and Virco Manufacturing's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virco Manufacturing is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virco Manufacturing's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Virco Manufacturing Short Properties
Virco Manufacturing's future price predictability will typically decrease when Virco Manufacturing's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Virco Manufacturing often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Virco Manufacturing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Virco Manufacturing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virco Manufacturing to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Virco Stock refer to our How to Trade Virco Stock guide.You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Will Commercial Services & Supplies sector continue expanding? Could Virco diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Virco Manufacturing. If investors know Virco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Virco Manufacturing data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | Dividend Share 0.1 | Earnings Share 0.26 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.42) |
Understanding Virco Manufacturing requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Virco's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Virco Manufacturing's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Virco Manufacturing's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virco Manufacturing's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virco Manufacturing is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Virco Manufacturing's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.