Waste Management Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| WM Stock | USD 229.00 2.51 1.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Waste Management on the next trading day is expected to be 227.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.67. Waste Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Waste Management's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Waste Management's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Waste Management fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Waste Management's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.9565 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.5057 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.3442 | Wall Street Target Price 248.32 |
Using Waste Management hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Waste Management from the perspective of Waste Management response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Waste Management using Waste Management's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Waste using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Waste Management's stock price.
Waste Management Short Interest
An investor who is long Waste Management may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Waste Management and may potentially protect profits, hedge Waste Management with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 222.9849 | Short Percent 0.0119 | Short Ratio 2.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.4 M | 50 Day MA 215.0192 |
Waste Management Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Waste Management's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Waste. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Waste can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Waste Management. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Waste Management Implied Volatility | 0.31 |
Waste Management's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Waste Management stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Waste Management's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Waste Management stock will not fluctuate a lot when Waste Management's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Waste Management on the next trading day is expected to be 227.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.67. Waste Management after-hype prediction price | USD 229.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Waste Management to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Waste contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Waste Management will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Waste Management trading at USD 229.0, that is roughly USD 0.0444 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Waste Management's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Waste Management options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Waste Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Waste Management's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Waste Management's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Waste Management stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Waste Management's open interest, investors have to compare it to Waste Management's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Waste Management is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Waste. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Waste Management Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Waste price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Waste using various technical indicators. When you analyze Waste charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Waste Management Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Waste Management's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1987-12-31 | Previous Quarter 440 M | Current Value 175 M | Quarterly Volatility 562.1 M |
Waste Management Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Waste Management on the next trading day is expected to be 227.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.60, mean absolute percentage error of 10.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Waste Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Waste Management's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Waste Management Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Waste Management | Waste Management Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Waste Management Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Waste Management's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Waste Management's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 225.96 and 228.52, respectively. We have considered Waste Management's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Waste Management stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Waste Management stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.487 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6011 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 158.667 |
Predictive Modules for Waste Management
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Waste Management. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Waste Management After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Waste Management at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Waste Management or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Waste Management, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Waste Management Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Waste Management's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Waste Management's historical news coverage. Waste Management's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 227.89 and 230.45, respectively. We have considered Waste Management's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Waste Management is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Waste Management is based on 3 months time horizon.
Waste Management Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Waste Management is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Waste Management backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Waste Management, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.28 | 0.17 | 0.60 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
229.00 | 229.17 | 0.07 |
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Waste Management Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 Waste Management is listed for 229.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.6. Waste is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 229.17 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 97.71%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Waste Management is about 27.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 229.60. The company generated the yearly revenue of 22.06 B. Reported Net Income was 2.75 B with gross profit of 9.91 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Waste Management to cross-verify your projections.Waste Management Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Waste Management's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Waste Management's future price movements. Getting to know how Waste Management's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Waste Management may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RSG | Republic Services | 2.99 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.74 | (1.50) | 4.38 | |
| EMR | Emerson Electric | 0.31 | 9 per month | 1.56 | 0.09 | 2.36 | (2.84) | 8.01 | |
| UPS | United Parcel Service | (0.51) | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.17 | 2.75 | (2.40) | 11.51 | |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | 14.24 | 6 per month | 1.37 | 0.06 | 2.85 | (1.59) | 9.88 | |
| JCI | Johnson Controls International | (24.61) | 33 per month | 1.58 | (0.0007) | 1.94 | (2.08) | 15.08 | |
| CTAS | Cintas | 4.38 | 9 per month | 0.90 | (0.01) | 2.03 | (1.70) | 5.41 | |
| MMM | 3M Company | 3.47 | 11 per month | 1.72 | (0) | 2.33 | (2.10) | 14.62 | |
| WCN | Waste Connections | (0.22) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.99 | (1.90) | 6.00 | |
| TDG | Transdigm Group Incorporated | 38.28 | 9 per month | 0.86 | 0.07 | 2.16 | (1.73) | 4.99 | |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | 7.76 | 9 per month | 1.42 | (0.02) | 2.40 | (2.82) | 6.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for Waste Management
For every potential investor in Waste, whether a beginner or expert, Waste Management's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Waste Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Waste. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Waste Management's price trends.Waste Management Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Waste Management stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Waste Management could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Waste Management by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Waste Management Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Waste Management stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Waste Management shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Waste Management stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Waste Management entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Waste Management Risk Indicators
The analysis of Waste Management's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Waste Management's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting waste stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9225 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Waste Management
The number of cover stories for Waste Management depends on current market conditions and Waste Management's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Waste Management is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Waste Management's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Waste Management Short Properties
Waste Management's future price predictability will typically decrease when Waste Management's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Waste Management often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Waste Management's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Waste Management's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 403.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 414 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Waste Management to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Waste Stock, please use our How to Invest in Waste Management guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Environmental & Facilities Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Waste Management. If investors know Waste will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Waste Management listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | Dividend Share 3.225 | Earnings Share 6.34 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.149 |
The market value of Waste Management is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Waste that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Waste Management's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Waste Management's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Waste Management's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Waste Management's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Waste Management's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Waste Management is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Waste Management's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.