Watsco Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| WSO Stock | USD 386.94 3.00 0.78% |
Watsco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Watsco's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Watsco's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Watsco fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Watsco's stock price is about 61. This entails that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Watsco, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.3874 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.4166 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.2502 | Wall Street Target Price 394.2727 |
Using Watsco hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Watsco Inc from the perspective of Watsco response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Watsco using Watsco's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Watsco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Watsco's stock price.
Watsco Short Interest
An investor who is long Watsco may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Watsco and may potentially protect profits, hedge Watsco with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 410.3282 | Short Percent 0.1162 | Short Ratio 7.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.2 M | 50 Day MA 352.4584 |
Watsco Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Watsco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 386.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 318.38.Watsco Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Watsco's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Watsco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Watsco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Watsco Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Watsco's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Watsco.
Watsco Implied Volatility | 0.49 |
Watsco's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Watsco Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Watsco's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Watsco stock will not fluctuate a lot when Watsco's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Watsco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 386.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 318.38. Watsco after-hype prediction price | USD 386.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Watsco to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Watsco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Watsco Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0306% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Watsco trading at USD 386.94, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Watsco's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Watsco Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Watsco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Watsco's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Watsco's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Watsco stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Watsco's open interest, investors have to compare it to Watsco's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Watsco is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Watsco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Watsco Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Watsco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Watsco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Watsco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Watsco Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Watsco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 386.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.31, mean absolute percentage error of 45.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 318.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Watsco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Watsco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Watsco Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Watsco | Watsco Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Watsco Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Watsco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Watsco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 385.07 and 388.81, respectively. We have considered Watsco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Watsco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Watsco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0899 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6208 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.3063 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 318.38 |
Predictive Modules for Watsco
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Watsco Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Watsco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Watsco After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Watsco at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Watsco or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Watsco, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Watsco Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Watsco's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Watsco's historical news coverage. Watsco's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 385.05 and 388.83, respectively. We have considered Watsco's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Watsco is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Watsco Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Watsco Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Watsco is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Watsco backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Watsco, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.87 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
386.94 | 386.94 | 0.00 |
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Watsco Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Watsco Inc is traded for 386.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Watsco is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 86.57%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Watsco is about 188.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 387.05. About 100.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.32. Watsco Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.85. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of January 2026. The firm had 3:2 split on the 17th of August 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Watsco to cross-verify your projections.Watsco Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Watsco's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Watsco's future price movements. Getting to know how Watsco's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Watsco may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ITT | ITT Inc | 0.33 | 11 per month | 1.79 | 0.01 | 1.90 | (2.11) | 17.49 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | 1.08 | 13 per month | 1.90 | 0.14 | 3.54 | (3.42) | 16.49 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | (1.01) | 14 per month | 1.22 | (0.01) | 2.46 | (1.90) | 6.74 | |
| NDSN | Nordson | (1.01) | 8 per month | 0.70 | 0.15 | 2.33 | (1.31) | 4.63 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | (1.27) | 5 per month | 1.67 | 0 | 4.11 | (2.75) | 8.62 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 0.80 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.18 | (2.28) | 5.10 | |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | (1.01) | 12 per month | 0.82 | 0.11 | 2.68 | (1.79) | 6.54 | |
| TXT | Textron | (0.52) | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.1 | 2.26 | (1.64) | 4.67 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | 5.27 | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.05 | 2.64 | (1.73) | 5.91 | |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 7.24 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.03 | (2.65) | 6.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Watsco
For every potential investor in Watsco, whether a beginner or expert, Watsco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Watsco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Watsco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Watsco's price trends.Watsco Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Watsco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Watsco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Watsco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Watsco Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Watsco stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Watsco shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Watsco stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Watsco Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Watsco Risk Indicators
The analysis of Watsco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Watsco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting watsco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Watsco
The number of cover stories for Watsco depends on current market conditions and Watsco's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Watsco is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Watsco's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Watsco Short Properties
Watsco's future price predictability will typically decrease when Watsco's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Watsco Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Watsco's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Watsco's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 781.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Watsco to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Watsco. If investors know Watsco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Watsco listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Dividend Share 11.4 | Earnings Share 12.85 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of Watsco Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Watsco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Watsco's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Watsco's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Watsco's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Watsco's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Watsco's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Watsco is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Watsco's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.