Watsco Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| WSO Stock | USD 388.18 3.36 0.87% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Watsco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 402.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 298.02. Watsco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Watsco's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Watsco hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Watsco Inc from the perspective of Watsco response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Watsco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 402.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 298.02. Watsco after-hype prediction price | USD 388.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Watsco to cross-verify your projections. Watsco Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Watsco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Watsco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Watsco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Watsco Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Watsco Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 402.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.89, mean absolute percentage error of 42.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 298.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Watsco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Watsco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Watsco Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Watsco | Watsco Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Watsco Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Watsco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Watsco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 400.73 and 404.53, respectively. We have considered Watsco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Watsco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Watsco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.8534 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.8855 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 298.0179 |
Predictive Modules for Watsco
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Watsco Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Watsco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Watsco After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Watsco at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Watsco or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Watsco, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Watsco Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Watsco's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Watsco's historical news coverage. Watsco's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 386.28 and 390.08, respectively. We have considered Watsco's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Watsco is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Watsco Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Watsco Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Watsco is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Watsco backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Watsco, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.90 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
388.18 | 388.18 | 0.00 |
|
Watsco Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Watsco Inc is traded for 388.18. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.19. Watsco is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Watsco is about 116.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 388.37. About 100.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.31. Watsco Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.85. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of January 2026. The firm had 3:2 split on the 17th of August 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Watsco to cross-verify your projections.Watsco Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Watsco's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Watsco's future price movements. Getting to know how Watsco's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Watsco may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ITT | ITT Inc | 0.14 | 9 per month | 1.78 | 0.02 | 1.90 | (2.11) | 17.49 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | (1.14) | 20 per month | 1.93 | 0.14 | 3.54 | (3.42) | 16.49 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | 1.63 | 7 per month | 1.18 | 0.03 | 2.46 | (1.90) | 6.74 | |
| NDSN | Nordson | 1.18 | 9 per month | 0.73 | 0.16 | 2.33 | (1.45) | 4.63 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.76 | (0) | 4.11 | (2.75) | 8.62 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.18 | (2.28) | 5.10 | |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 12.45 | 6 per month | 0.75 | 0.15 | 2.68 | (1.79) | 6.54 | |
| TXT | Textron | 0.99 | 3 per month | 0.93 | 0.11 | 2.26 | (1.64) | 4.67 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | (0.24) | 3 per month | 1.01 | 0.08 | 2.70 | (1.73) | 7.04 | |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 1.56 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.03 | (2.65) | 6.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Watsco
For every potential investor in Watsco, whether a beginner or expert, Watsco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Watsco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Watsco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Watsco's price trends.Watsco Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Watsco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Watsco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Watsco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Watsco Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Watsco stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Watsco shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Watsco stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Watsco Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Watsco Risk Indicators
The analysis of Watsco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Watsco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting watsco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Watsco
The number of cover stories for Watsco depends on current market conditions and Watsco's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Watsco is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Watsco's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Watsco Short Properties
Watsco's future price predictability will typically decrease when Watsco's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Watsco Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Watsco's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Watsco's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 781.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Watsco to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Watsco. If investors know Watsco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Watsco listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Watsco Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Watsco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Watsco's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Watsco's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Watsco's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Watsco's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Watsco's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Watsco is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Watsco's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.