Watsco Inc Price Pattern Analysis
| WSO Stock | USD 420.60 -8.64 -2.01% |
Momentum
OversoldOverbought
74 · Strong
Quarterly Earnings Growth -5.3% | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.34 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.83 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.5 | Wall Street Target Price 423.55 |
How Watsco Inc responds to headline-driven attention is a key input for near-term expectations. Peer-level hype data provides context for interpreting Watsco's attention signals. Sentiment signals for Watsco are drawn from options positioning and short interest data. Put-call positioning and short interest metrics together reflect participant expectations for Watsco.
Watsco Current Signal Summary
Watsco's momentum reading (RSI at 74) sits in overbought territory, while the expected daily return of 0.06% is slightly positive and hype elasticity is positive. Daily volatility at 2.17% is moderate, suggesting a standard range of near-term outcomes. Moderate headline density (10 events/month) reflects steady media coverage. Implied volatility at 0.99% indicates the options market expects relatively contained movement. Overall, momentum, expected return, and sentiment signals are aligned in a constructive direction for Watsco.
Watsco Short Interest Reading
200 Day MA 388.27 | Shares Short Prior Month 18 | 50 Day MA 400.62 | Shares Short 37 | Beta 1.1 |
Price Response to Market Sentiment - Watsco Inc
Attention intensity around Watsco adds a behavioral layer to the price picture. Attention spikes and drops are shown in relation to price changes.
Sentiment-price alignment for Watsco shows how closely attention tracks actual market moves. Comparing these patterns with fundamentals and volatility metrics adds interpretive depth.
Watsco Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
Implied volatility for Watsco translates options pricing into an expected variability measure. This reading serves as a reference point for near-term volatility expectations.
Watsco's sentiment profile maps news and public attention against recent price patterns. Attention data enriched with volatility framing strengthens interpretation of Watsco's sentiment profile.
Watsco Post-Event Predicted Price | $ 420.84 |
Hype analysis sits alongside price forecasting, technical analysis, and analyst consensus for a fuller picture. Earnings data and momentum measures round out the analytical framework.
Rule 16 Daily Move Estimate
Under Rule 16, the annualized implied volatility for 2026-05-15 options translates to a daily move of about 0.0619%. The value represents a volatility-based estimate derived from options pricing.
The mean reversion principle applied to Watsco's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Identifying the root cause of Watsco's price dislocation is essential before acting on a mean reversion signal.
Post-Sentiment Price Density Analysis
Watsco's return distribution captures the full spectrum of possible outcomes, including tail events. The tails of the Watsco distribution capture low-probability but high-impact outcomes that point estimates ignore.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimated Post-Sentiment Price Volatility
The projected after-hype price range for Watsco is derived from Watsco's historical news coverage and market behavior. Watsco's post-sentiment downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 418.67 and 423.01, respectively. These boundaries reflect how Watsco has historically moved in response to comparable catalysts.
Current Value
This after-hype projection for Watsco Inc uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. Watsco is Very Low at this time.
Price Outlook Analysis
Sudden rallies in Watsco without backing data often point to speculative buying or fund shifts. Volume spikes in Watsco without matching news often signal that momentum is driving the trades.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Sentiment Sensitivity | Peer Sensitivity | News Density | Peer Density | Next Expected Sentiment |
0.06 | 2.17 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 10 Events | 8 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest Traded Price | Expected Post-Event Price | Potential Return on Next Event | Post-Sentiment Volatility | |
420.60 | 420.84 | 0.06 |
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Market Sentiment Timeline
On the 10th of May Watsco is traded for 420.60. Watsco has a historical sentiment sensitivity of 0.24. Peers average a sentiment sensitivity of -0.04. is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the post-event price near 420.84 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on WSO the price is about 54.25%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of peer sentiment impact on Watsco is about 298.9%, with the expected peer-implied price after the next announcement near 420.56. WSO reported last year's revenue of $7.24 billion. Total Income to common stockholders was $464.18 million with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of $2.03 billion. Over a 90-day investment horizon, the next projected press release will be in 10 days. Watsco's projection data can be cross-verified against Watsco Basic Forecasting Models. Statistical output for Watsco reflects patterns identified in historical data series.Related Market Sentiment Analysis
Analyzing Watsco's peer sentiment data reveals which competitors are most likely to influence Watsco's short-term price. Sentiment elasticity, information ratio, and semi-deviation help contextualize the relative news sensitivity of Watsco.
| SentimentElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ITT | ITT Inc | 5.90 | 10 per month | 1.77 | 0.08 | 3.23 | -3.30 | 13.21 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | -1.50 | 8 per month | 2.51 | 0.09 | 5.96 | -3.90 | 17.67 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | -0.91 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.18 | 2.06 | -2.51 | 7.39 | |
| NDSN | Nordson | 2.88 | 15 per month | 1.37 | -0.0045 | 2.69 | -2.17 | 5.68 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | -0.48 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 3.67 | -3.46 | 9.06 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 1.86 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.18 | 2.24 | -2.79 | 11.61 | |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | -1.92 | 7 per month | 1.33 | 0.02 | 2.60 | -2.63 | 7.36 | |
| TXT | Textron | -1.17 | 8 per month | 1.64 | 0.01 | 2.34 | -2.61 | 10.87 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | -5.81 | 8 per month | 1.61 | 0.06 | 3.01 | -2.61 | 6.21 | |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | -6.11 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.17 | 3.35 | -3.90 | 17.83 |
Watsco Additional Predictive Modules
The predictive toolkit for Watsco draws on momentum, cycle, and volatility data to project near-term price behavior. Backtested accuracy does not guarantee forward performance - market structure and volatility regimes evolve.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sentiment Indicators & Methodology
Sentiment analysis for Watsco evaluates news tone, positioning, and narrative momentum. Crowd optimism can amplify upside swings during momentum regimes. Watsco has a market cap of 17.1 billion, P/E of 36.34, ROE of 18.6%.
Watsco Inc data is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Analyst inputs may be included when coverage is available.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Vlad Skutelnik, Macroaxis Contributor
Pair Trading with Watsco
A pair-trading setup around Watsco shifts the return benchmark from the broad market to a second position, altering the risk profile. The key question is whether the second leg adds real hedge value instead of just creating a more complex version of the same risk.
Related SymbolsLess Correlated SymbolsPair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Finding correlated alternatives to Watsco is a practical necessity for tax-aware investors. Holding a correlated substitute during the wash-sale period minimizes portfolio drift from Watsco Inc.
The statistical relationship between Watsco Inc and other instruments is summarized by the correlation coefficient. Assets with correlations below 0.3 to Watsco Inc typically offer meaningful diversification benefits.
Pair evaluation and Correlation analysis for Watsco provide hedging context. The method can be applied across sectors and broader equity sets.