Xcel Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| XEL Stock | USD 76.06 0.09 0.12% |
Xcel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Xcel Energy's share price is approaching 49. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Xcel Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Xcel Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Xcel Energy from the perspective of Xcel Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Xcel Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 76.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.46. Xcel Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 76.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xcel Energy to cross-verify your projections. Xcel Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Xcel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Xcel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Xcel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Xcel Energy Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Xcel Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 76.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xcel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xcel Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Xcel Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Xcel Energy | Xcel Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Xcel Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Xcel Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xcel Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 75.09 and 77.03, respectively. We have considered Xcel Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xcel Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xcel Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0882 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1181 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6687 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0088 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.455 |
Predictive Modules for Xcel Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xcel Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xcel Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Xcel Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Xcel Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Xcel Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Xcel Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Xcel Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Xcel Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Xcel Energy's historical news coverage. Xcel Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 75.09 and 77.03, respectively. We have considered Xcel Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Xcel Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Xcel Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Xcel Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Xcel Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Xcel Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Xcel Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 0.97 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 6 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
76.06 | 76.06 | 0.00 |
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Xcel Energy Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Xcel Energy is traded for 76.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Xcel is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 79.51%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Xcel Energy is about 1010.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 76.05. About 96.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Xcel Energy was at this time reported as 35.81. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.94. Xcel Energy last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of June 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xcel Energy to cross-verify your projections.Xcel Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Xcel Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Xcel Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Xcel Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Xcel Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EXC | Exelon | (0.32) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.26 | (1.77) | 4.76 | |
| ETR | Entergy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | (0.04) | 1.70 | (1.73) | 4.90 | |
| D | Dominion Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.04 | 1.63 | (2.04) | 5.71 | |
| PEG | Public Service Enterprise | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | (0.01) | 1.61 | (1.52) | 5.52 | |
| WEC | WEC Energy Group | (0.33) | 14 per month | 0.79 | (0.04) | 1.05 | (1.14) | 4.32 | |
| NEE-PN | Nextera Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.30 | (0.04) | 0.63 | (0.58) | 1.87 | |
| ED | Consolidated Edison | 1.22 | 8 per month | 1.03 | 0.06 | 1.58 | (1.66) | 4.62 | |
| PCG | PGE Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.79 | (2.31) | 6.66 | |
| DTE | DTE Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | (0.02) | 1.32 | (1.55) | 4.73 | |
| AEP | American Electric Power | (1.53) | 8 per month | 0.91 | 0.01 | 1.73 | (1.51) | 8.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Xcel Energy
For every potential investor in Xcel, whether a beginner or expert, Xcel Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xcel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xcel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xcel Energy's price trends.Xcel Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xcel Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xcel Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xcel Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Xcel Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xcel Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xcel Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xcel Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xcel Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Xcel Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Xcel Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xcel Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xcel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.775 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9662 | |||
| Variance | 0.9335 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Xcel Energy
The number of cover stories for Xcel Energy depends on current market conditions and Xcel Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Xcel Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Xcel Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Xcel Energy Short Properties
Xcel Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Xcel Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Xcel Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Xcel Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xcel Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 563 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 179 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xcel Energy to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Xcel Stock please use our How to buy in Xcel Stock guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Electric Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xcel Energy. Anticipated expansion of Xcel directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Xcel Energy assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate Xcel Energy using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Xcel Energy's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Xcel Energy's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xcel Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xcel Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Xcel Energy's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.