Advance Auto Parts Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.18
| AAP Stock | USD 43.42 2.63 6.45% |
Advance |
Advance Auto Target Price Odds to finish below 38.18
The tendency of Advance Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 38.18 or more in 90 days |
| 43.42 | 90 days | 38.18 | about 27.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Advance Auto to drop to $ 38.18 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.97 (This Advance Auto Parts probability density function shows the probability of Advance Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Advance Auto Parts price to stay between $ 38.18 and its current price of $43.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.08 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.02 . This suggests Advance Auto Parts market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Advance Auto is expected to follow. Additionally Advance Auto Parts has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Advance Auto Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Advance Auto
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advance Auto Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Advance Auto Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Advance Auto is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Advance Auto's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Advance Auto Parts, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Advance Auto within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Advance Auto Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Advance Auto for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Advance Auto Parts can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Advance Auto Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Advance Auto Parts has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 25th of October 2024 Advance Auto paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Advance Auto Parts Inc Shares Up 3.44 percent on Nov 22 |
Advance Auto Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Advance Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Advance Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advance Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 503.5 M |
Advance Auto Technical Analysis
Advance Auto's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Advance Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Advance Auto Parts. In general, you should focus on analyzing Advance Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Advance Auto Predictive Forecast Models
Advance Auto's time-series forecasting models is one of many Advance Auto's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Advance Auto's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Advance Auto Parts
Checking the ongoing alerts about Advance Auto for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Advance Auto Parts help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Advance Auto Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Advance Auto Parts has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 25th of October 2024 Advance Auto paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Advance Auto Parts Inc Shares Up 3.44 percent on Nov 22 |
Additional Tools for Advance Stock Analysis
When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.