Advance Auto Parts Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AAP Stock | USD 40.79 2.10 5.43% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Advance Auto Parts is 'Strong Buy'. A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Advance Auto Parts given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Advance Auto. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Advance Auto Parts, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Check out Advance Auto Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Advance and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Advance Auto Parts. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
Advance |
Execute Advance Auto Buy or Sell Advice
The Advance recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Advance Auto Parts. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Advance Auto Parts or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Advance Auto's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
Advance Auto Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Advance Auto Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 25th of October 2024 Advance Auto paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from bizjournals.com: Advance Auto Parts to cut more than 140 Texas jobs as part of mass store closures |
Advance Auto Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Advance Auto's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Advance Auto's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Advance Auto daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Advance Auto Parts price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Advance Auto returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Advance Auto.
| Mean Return | -0.29 | Value At Risk | -4.63 | Potential Upside | 5.17 | Standard Deviation | 2.95 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Advance Auto historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Advance Stock Institutional Investors
The Advance Auto's institutional investors refer to entities that pool money to purchase Advance Auto's securities or originate loans. These institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds.
| Shares | Ubs Group Ag | 2024-06-30 | 1.2 M | Royce & Associates, Lp | 2024-09-30 | 1.1 M | American Century Companies Inc | 2024-09-30 | 913.6 K | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 830 K | Legion Partners Asset Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 822.8 K | Estuary Capital Management, Lp | 2024-09-30 | 787 K | Federated Hermes Inc | 2024-09-30 | 786.7 K | Dorsal Capital Management Llc | 2024-09-30 | 750 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-06-30 | 717.3 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 7.4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 6.6 M |
Advance Auto Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (477.9M) | 416.3M | (233.6M) | (332.1M) | 232.7M | 244.3M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 395.3M | 701.9M | 822.6M | 296.3M | 45.0M | 42.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 19.1M | 54.2M | 964K | 13.6M | 4.1M | 3.9M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 471.6M | 267.8M | 289.6M | 426.0M | 242.4M | 224.9M | |
| Net Income | 486.9M | 493.0M | 616.1M | 501.9M | 29.7M | 28.2M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 418.7M | 835.0M | 601.4M | 269.3M | 503.5M | 291.1M | |
| Change To Inventory | (63.1M) | (101.4M) | (120.3M) | (272.3M) | 44.8M | 47.1M | |
| Depreciation | 238.4M | 250.1M | 259.9M | 283.8M | 306.5M | 210.1M | |
| Dividends Paid | 17.2M | 56.3M | 160.9M | 336.2M | 209.3M | 219.8M | |
| Change Receivables | (21.5M) | (62.8M) | (59.0M) | (32.7M) | (37.5M) | (39.4M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 32.0M | (369.4M) | 244.5M | 332.5M | 382.4M | 401.5M | |
| Change To Netincome | 79.7M | 107.6M | 132.2M | 70.9M | 81.5M | 60.7M | |
| Investments | (462.9M) | (266.9M) | (287.3M) | (424.4M) | (277.8M) | (291.7M) |
Advance Auto Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Advance Auto or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Advance Auto's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Advance stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Advance Auto Volatility Alert
Advance Auto Parts exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.13 and kurtosis of 0.46. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Advance Auto's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Advance Auto's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Advance Auto Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Advance Auto's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Advance Auto's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Advance Auto and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Advance Auto or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Advance Auto's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advance Auto by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Advance Auto to competition |
| Fundamentals | Advance Auto | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.0046 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0025 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.03 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 5.78 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 59.73 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.09 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 98.91 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 10.58 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 19.36 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.94 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.22 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 11.29 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 4.96 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 426.36 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 29.73 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 269.28 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.25 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 4 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.50 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.13 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 42.34 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 287.38 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.77 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.79 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.54 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 44.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 40 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.19 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 2.44 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 12.28 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 4.56 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 1.07 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Carla Bailo of tradable shares of Advance Auto at 36.74 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Advance Auto Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Advance . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Advance Auto Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Advance Auto Parts? Buying financial instruments such as Advance Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Additional Tools for Advance Stock Analysis
When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.