Advance Auto Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| AAP Stock | USD 49.64 0.30 0.61% |
Advance Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Advance Auto's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Advance Auto's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Advance Auto fundamentals over time.
As of today, The value of RSI of Advance Auto's share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Advance Auto, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.66) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4676 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.8161 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6694 | Wall Street Target Price 51.2857 |
Using Advance Auto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advance Auto Parts from the perspective of Advance Auto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Advance Auto using Advance Auto's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Advance using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Advance Auto's stock price.
Advance Auto Short Interest
An investor who is long Advance Auto may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Advance Auto and may potentially protect profits, hedge Advance Auto with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 49.7547 | Short Percent 0.3374 | Short Ratio 7.23 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.3 M | 50 Day MA 45.8698 |
Advance Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Advance Auto Parts on the next trading day is expected to be 41.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 179.37.Advance Auto Parts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Advance Auto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Advance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Advance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Advance Auto Parts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Advance Auto's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Advance Auto.
Advance Auto Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
Advance Auto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Advance Auto Parts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Advance Auto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Advance Auto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Advance Auto's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Advance Auto Parts on the next trading day is expected to be 41.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 179.37. Advance Auto after-hype prediction price | USD 49.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advance Auto to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Advance contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Advance Auto Parts will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Advance Auto trading at USD 49.64, that is roughly USD 0.0248 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Advance Auto's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Advance Auto Parts options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Advance Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Advance Auto's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Advance Auto's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Advance Auto stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Advance Auto's open interest, investors have to compare it to Advance Auto's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Advance Auto is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Advance. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Advance Auto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Advance Auto Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Advance Auto Parts on the next trading day is expected to be 41.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.94, mean absolute percentage error of 12.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 179.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advance Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advance Auto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Advance Auto Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Advance Auto | Advance Auto Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Advance Auto Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Advance Auto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advance Auto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.51 and 45.20, respectively. We have considered Advance Auto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advance Auto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advance Auto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.6529 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9405 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0648 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 179.3695 |
Predictive Modules for Advance Auto
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advance Auto Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Advance Auto After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Advance Auto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advance Auto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advance Auto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Advance Auto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Advance Auto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advance Auto's historical news coverage. Advance Auto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.00 and 52.68, respectively. We have considered Advance Auto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Advance Auto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advance Auto Parts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Advance Auto Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advance Auto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advance Auto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advance Auto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 3.34 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
49.64 | 49.34 | 0.00 |
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Advance Auto Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Advance Auto Parts is traded for 49.64. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Advance is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Advance Auto is about 341.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.66. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.35. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Advance Auto Parts has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.67. The entity recorded a loss per share of 10.22. The firm last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2026. Advance Auto had 3:2 split on the 26th of September 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advance Auto to cross-verify your projections.Advance Auto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Advance Auto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advance Auto's future price movements. Getting to know how Advance Auto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advance Auto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASO | Academy Sports Outdoors | 3.79 | 7 per month | 2.16 | 0.04 | 4.95 | (3.51) | 12.70 | |
| RH | RH | 4.02 | 6 per month | 2.92 | 0.06 | 6.59 | (4.89) | 15.48 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | 1.98 | 12 per month | 2.30 | 0.23 | 5.93 | (4.23) | 22.23 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.35) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.73 | (3.04) | 9.51 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | 0.38 | 7 per month | 1.93 | 0.18 | 5.78 | (3.60) | 19.53 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | (0.64) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.85 | (3.53) | 8.62 | |
| PTON | Peloton Interactive | 0.37 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.78 | (5.89) | 21.58 | |
| DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings | 0.30 | 10 per month | 1.70 | (0.03) | 3.92 | (2.80) | 9.66 | |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | (0.94) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.83 | (6.75) | 13.88 | |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | 0.87 | 11 per month | 1.91 | (0.01) | 3.71 | (3.26) | 10.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Advance Auto
For every potential investor in Advance, whether a beginner or expert, Advance Auto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advance Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advance Auto's price trends.Advance Auto Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advance Auto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advance Auto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advance Auto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advance Auto Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advance Auto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advance Auto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advance Auto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advance Auto Parts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Advance Auto Risk Indicators
The analysis of Advance Auto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advance Auto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advance stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Variance | 11.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Advance Auto
The number of cover stories for Advance Auto depends on current market conditions and Advance Auto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advance Auto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advance Auto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Advance Auto Short Properties
Advance Auto's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advance Auto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advance Auto Parts often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advance Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advance Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Additional Tools for Advance Stock Analysis
When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.