Ambac Financial Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.39
| AMBC Stock | USD 13.09 0.62 4.97% |
Ambac |
Ambac Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 6.39
The tendency of Ambac Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 6.39 or more in 90 days |
| 13.09 | 90 days | 6.39 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ambac Financial to drop to $ 6.39 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ambac Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of Ambac Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ambac Financial Group price to stay between $ 6.39 and its current price of $13.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ambac Financial Group has a beta of -0.0601. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ambac Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ambac Financial Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ambac Financial Group has an alpha of 0.3299, implying that it can generate a 0.33 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ambac Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ambac Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambac Financial Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ambac Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ambac Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ambac Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ambac Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ambac Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Ambac Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ambac Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ambac Financial Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ambac Financial Group currently holds 3.5 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.17, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambac Financial Group has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ambac Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 88.0% of Ambac Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Ambac Financial Group Third Quarter 2024 Earnings US0.63 loss per share |
Ambac Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ambac Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ambac Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambac Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Ambac Financial Technical Analysis
Ambac Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ambac Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ambac Financial Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ambac Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ambac Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Ambac Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ambac Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ambac Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ambac Financial Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ambac Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ambac Financial Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ambac Financial Group currently holds 3.5 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.17, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambac Financial Group has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ambac Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 88.0% of Ambac Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Ambac Financial Group Third Quarter 2024 Earnings US0.63 loss per share |
Check out Ambac Financial Backtesting, Ambac Financial Valuation, Ambac Financial Correlation, Ambac Financial Hype Analysis, Ambac Financial Volatility, Ambac Financial History as well as Ambac Financial Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambac Financial. If investors know Ambac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ambac Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Earnings Share (0.47) | Revenue Per Share 8.59 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.681 | Return On Assets 0.0041 |
The market value of Ambac Financial Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ambac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ambac Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ambac Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ambac Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ambac Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ambac Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ambac Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ambac Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.