Amerisafe Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 37.96
| AMSF Stock | USD 37.96 0.03 0.08% |
Closest to current price AMERISAFE long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
AMERISAFE | Build AI portfolio with AMERISAFE Stock |
AMERISAFE Target Price Odds to finish over 37.96
The tendency of AMERISAFE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 37.96 | 90 days | 37.96 | about 73.43 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AMERISAFE to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 73.43 (This AMERISAFE probability density function shows the probability of AMERISAFE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
AMERISAFE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AMERISAFE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMERISAFE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMERISAFE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMERISAFE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AMERISAFE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AMERISAFE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMERISAFE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AMERISAFE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
AMERISAFE Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AMERISAFE for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AMERISAFE can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AMERISAFE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Can AMERISAFE Inc. stock outperform in a bear market - Quarterly Profit Report Smart Swing Trading Techniques - mfd.ru |
AMERISAFE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AMERISAFE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AMERISAFE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMERISAFE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 130.6 M |
AMERISAFE Technical Analysis
AMERISAFE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMERISAFE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMERISAFE. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMERISAFE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AMERISAFE Predictive Forecast Models
AMERISAFE's time-series forecasting models is one of many AMERISAFE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AMERISAFE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AMERISAFE
Checking the ongoing alerts about AMERISAFE for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AMERISAFE help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AMERISAFE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Can AMERISAFE Inc. stock outperform in a bear market - Quarterly Profit Report Smart Swing Trading Techniques - mfd.ru |
Check out AMERISAFE Analysis, AMERISAFE Valuation, AMERISAFE Correlation, AMERISAFE Hype Analysis, AMERISAFE Volatility, AMERISAFE Price History as well as AMERISAFE Performance. For more detail on how to invest in AMERISAFE Stock please use our How to Invest in AMERISAFE guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Can Property & Casualty Insurance industry sustain growth momentum? Does AMERISAFE have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMERISAFE. If investors know AMERISAFE will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating AMERISAFE demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 1.54 | Earnings Share 2.6 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 |
Investors evaluate AMERISAFE using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating AMERISAFE's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause AMERISAFE's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that AMERISAFE's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AMERISAFE represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, AMERISAFE's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.