Amtd Idea Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.29
| AMTD Stock | USD 1.22 0.02 1.61% |
AMTD |
AMTD IDEA Target Price Odds to finish below 1.29
The tendency of AMTD Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 1.29 after 90 days |
| 1.22 | 90 days | 1.29 | about 39.09 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AMTD IDEA to stay under $ 1.29 after 90 days from now is about 39.09 (This AMTD IDEA Group probability density function shows the probability of AMTD Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMTD IDEA Group price to stay between its current price of $ 1.22 and $ 1.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.09 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days AMTD IDEA has a beta of 0.9. This suggests AMTD IDEA Group market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, AMTD IDEA is expected to follow. Additionally AMTD IDEA Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AMTD IDEA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AMTD IDEA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMTD IDEA Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMTD IDEA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMTD IDEA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AMTD IDEA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AMTD IDEA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMTD IDEA Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AMTD IDEA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.90 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
AMTD IDEA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AMTD IDEA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AMTD IDEA Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AMTD IDEA Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AMTD IDEA Group may become a speculative penny stock | |
| AMTD IDEA Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| AMTD IDEA Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| AMTD IDEA Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Schwab Expands Support of RIATA Student Scholarship as It Celebrates Five Years University Grant Program Set to Reach 25M Milestone in 2025 |
AMTD IDEA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AMTD Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AMTD IDEA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMTD IDEA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 120.2 M |
AMTD IDEA Technical Analysis
AMTD IDEA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMTD Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMTD IDEA Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMTD Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AMTD IDEA Predictive Forecast Models
AMTD IDEA's time-series forecasting models is one of many AMTD IDEA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AMTD IDEA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AMTD IDEA Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about AMTD IDEA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AMTD IDEA Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AMTD IDEA Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AMTD IDEA Group may become a speculative penny stock | |
| AMTD IDEA Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| AMTD IDEA Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| AMTD IDEA Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Schwab Expands Support of RIATA Student Scholarship as It Celebrates Five Years University Grant Program Set to Reach 25M Milestone in 2025 |
Check out AMTD IDEA Backtesting, AMTD IDEA Valuation, AMTD IDEA Correlation, AMTD IDEA Hype Analysis, AMTD IDEA Volatility, AMTD IDEA History as well as AMTD IDEA Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMTD IDEA. If investors know AMTD will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AMTD IDEA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.44) | Earnings Share 2.22 | Revenue Per Share 2.03 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.192 | Return On Assets 0.1204 |
The market value of AMTD IDEA Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMTD that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMTD IDEA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMTD IDEA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AMTD IDEA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMTD IDEA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AMTD IDEA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AMTD IDEA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMTD IDEA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.