China Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 9.66
| CHN Fund | USD 12.46 0.22 1.74% |
China |
China Fund Target Price Odds to finish below 9.66
The tendency of China Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.66 or more in 90 days |
| 12.46 | 90 days | 9.66 | roughly 2.44 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Fund to drop to $ 9.66 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.44 (This China Fund probability density function shows the probability of China Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Fund price to stay between $ 9.66 and its current price of $12.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 60.38 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon China Fund has a beta of -0.13 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding China Fund are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, China Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally China Fund has an alpha of 0.4549, implying that it can generate a 0.45 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). China Fund Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Fund
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Fund Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Fund is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Fund's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Fund within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
China Fund Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Fund for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| China Fund had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: City of London Investment Managements Strategic Acquisition in China Fund Inc - GuruFocus.com | |
| China Fund generated five year return of 0.0% |
China Fund Technical Analysis
China Fund's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Fund Predictive Forecast Models
China Fund's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Fund's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Fund's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about China Fund
Checking the ongoing alerts about China Fund for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| China Fund had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: City of London Investment Managements Strategic Acquisition in China Fund Inc - GuruFocus.com | |
| China Fund generated five year return of 0.0% |
Other Information on Investing in China Fund
China Fund financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Fund security.
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements |