Canadian National Railway Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 108.75
| CNI Stock | USD 111.24 2.04 1.87% |
Canadian |
Canadian National Target Price Odds to finish below 108.75
The tendency of Canadian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 108.75 or more in 90 days |
| 111.24 | 90 days | 108.75 | about 6.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Canadian National to drop to $ 108.75 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.29 (This Canadian National Railway probability density function shows the probability of Canadian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Canadian National Railway price to stay between $ 108.75 and its current price of $111.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.54 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Canadian National has a beta of 0.94 suggesting Canadian National Railway market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Canadian National is expected to follow. Additionally Canadian National Railway has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Canadian National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Canadian National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian National Railway. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Canadian National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Canadian National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Canadian National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Canadian National Railway, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Canadian National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.94 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Canadian National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Canadian National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Canadian National Railway can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Canadian National generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Canadian National has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from bnnbloomberg.ca: Scotiabank Urges Switch Trades Ahead of Tax-Loss Selling Season |
Canadian National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Canadian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Canadian National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 659.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 475 M |
Canadian National Technical Analysis
Canadian National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Canadian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Canadian National Railway. In general, you should focus on analyzing Canadian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Canadian National Predictive Forecast Models
Canadian National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Canadian National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Canadian National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Canadian National Railway
Checking the ongoing alerts about Canadian National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Canadian National Railway help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Canadian National generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Canadian National has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from bnnbloomberg.ca: Scotiabank Urges Switch Trades Ahead of Tax-Loss Selling Season |
Check out Canadian National Backtesting, Canadian National Valuation, Canadian National Correlation, Canadian National Hype Analysis, Canadian National Volatility, Canadian National History as well as Canadian National Performance. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Ground Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Canadian National. If investors know Canadian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Canadian National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.018 | Dividend Share 3.325 | Earnings Share 6.04 | Revenue Per Share 26.896 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.031 |
The market value of Canadian National Railway is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Canadian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Canadian National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Canadian National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Canadian National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Canadian National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Canadian National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Canadian National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Canadian National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.