Conocophillips Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 111.9
| COP Stock | USD 106.10 5.65 5.06% |
ConocoPhillips |
ConocoPhillips Target Price Odds to finish over 111.9
The tendency of ConocoPhillips Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 111.90 or more in 90 days |
| 106.10 | 90 days | 111.90 | about 16.19 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ConocoPhillips to move over $ 111.90 or more in 90 days from now is about 16.19 (This ConocoPhillips probability density function shows the probability of ConocoPhillips Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ConocoPhillips price to stay between its current price of $ 106.10 and $ 111.90 at the end of the 90-day period is about 54.61 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon ConocoPhillips has a beta of 0.39 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ConocoPhillips average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ConocoPhillips will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ConocoPhillips has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ConocoPhillips Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ConocoPhillips
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ConocoPhillips. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ConocoPhillips Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ConocoPhillips is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ConocoPhillips' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ConocoPhillips, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ConocoPhillips within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
ConocoPhillips Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ConocoPhillips for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ConocoPhillips can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ConocoPhillips generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ConocoPhillips Shares Down 3.52 percent on Nov 25 |
ConocoPhillips Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ConocoPhillips Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ConocoPhillips' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConocoPhillips' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.6 B |
ConocoPhillips Technical Analysis
ConocoPhillips' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ConocoPhillips Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ConocoPhillips. In general, you should focus on analyzing ConocoPhillips Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ConocoPhillips Predictive Forecast Models
ConocoPhillips' time-series forecasting models is one of many ConocoPhillips' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ConocoPhillips' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ConocoPhillips
Checking the ongoing alerts about ConocoPhillips for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ConocoPhillips help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ConocoPhillips generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ConocoPhillips Shares Down 3.52 percent on Nov 25 |
Additional Tools for ConocoPhillips Stock Analysis
When running ConocoPhillips' price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.