ConocoPhillips Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| COP Stock | USD 102.80 1.41 1.39% |
ConocoPhillips Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although ConocoPhillips' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ConocoPhillips' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ConocoPhillips fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of ConocoPhillips' stock price is slightly above 61 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ConocoPhillips, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.3381 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.2573 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.247 | Wall Street Target Price 113.1786 |
Using ConocoPhillips hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ConocoPhillips from the perspective of ConocoPhillips response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ConocoPhillips using ConocoPhillips' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ConocoPhillips using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ConocoPhillips' stock price.
ConocoPhillips Short Interest
An investor who is long ConocoPhillips may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ConocoPhillips and may potentially protect profits, hedge ConocoPhillips with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 92.2082 | Short Percent 0.0158 | Short Ratio 2.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 16.9 M | 50 Day MA 93.8054 |
ConocoPhillips Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ConocoPhillips on the next trading day is expected to be 102.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.24.ConocoPhillips Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ConocoPhillips' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ConocoPhillips. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ConocoPhillips can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ConocoPhillips. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ConocoPhillips' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ConocoPhillips.
ConocoPhillips Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
ConocoPhillips' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ConocoPhillips stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ConocoPhillips' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ConocoPhillips stock will not fluctuate a lot when ConocoPhillips' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ConocoPhillips on the next trading day is expected to be 102.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.24. ConocoPhillips after-hype prediction price | USD 102.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ConocoPhillips | Build AI portfolio with ConocoPhillips Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ConocoPhillips contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ConocoPhillips will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ConocoPhillips trading at USD 102.8, that is roughly USD 0.0257 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ConocoPhillips' daily price movement you should consider acquiring ConocoPhillips options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 ConocoPhillips Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ConocoPhillips' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ConocoPhillips' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ConocoPhillips stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ConocoPhillips' open interest, investors have to compare it to ConocoPhillips' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ConocoPhillips is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ConocoPhillips. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ConocoPhillips Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ConocoPhillips price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ConocoPhillips using various technical indicators. When you analyze ConocoPhillips charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ConocoPhillips Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ConocoPhillips on the next trading day is expected to be 102.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40, mean absolute percentage error of 3.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ConocoPhillips Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ConocoPhillips' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ConocoPhillips Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ConocoPhillips | ConocoPhillips Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ConocoPhillips Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ConocoPhillips' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ConocoPhillips' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 100.75 and 104.60, respectively. We have considered ConocoPhillips' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ConocoPhillips stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ConocoPhillips stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4194 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3345 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4039 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 84.237 |
Predictive Modules for ConocoPhillips
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ConocoPhillips. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ConocoPhillips After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ConocoPhillips at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ConocoPhillips or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ConocoPhillips, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ConocoPhillips Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ConocoPhillips' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ConocoPhillips' historical news coverage. ConocoPhillips' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 100.86 and 104.72, respectively. We have considered ConocoPhillips' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ConocoPhillips is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ConocoPhillips is based on 3 months time horizon.
ConocoPhillips Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ConocoPhillips is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ConocoPhillips backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ConocoPhillips, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.93 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
102.80 | 102.79 | 0.01 |
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ConocoPhillips Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January ConocoPhillips is traded for 102.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. ConocoPhillips is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 102.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on ConocoPhillips is about 901.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 102.86. About 84.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.93. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ConocoPhillips recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.08. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2025. The firm had 1311791:1000000 split on the 1st of May 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ConocoPhillips to cross-verify your projections.ConocoPhillips Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ConocoPhillips' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ConocoPhillips' future price movements. Getting to know how ConocoPhillips' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ConocoPhillips may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ENB | Enbridge | 0.54 | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.01 | 1.52 | (1.60) | 4.97 | |
| CNQ | Canadian Natural Resources | 0.37 | 9 per month | 1.66 | 0.15 | 3.14 | (1.99) | 9.23 | |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE ADR | 1.02 | 10 per month | 1.04 | 0.13 | 1.97 | (1.29) | 7.47 | |
| EOG | EOG Resources | (0.72) | 8 per month | 1.28 | 0.03 | 2.49 | (2.27) | 6.52 | |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras | 0.51 | 7 per month | 1.20 | 0.23 | 3.70 | (1.82) | 11.62 | |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partners | 0.21 | 9 per month | 0.60 | 0.12 | 1.49 | (1.34) | 3.38 | |
| PBR-A | Petrleo Brasileiro SA | 1.40 | 30 per month | 1.45 | 0.21 | 4.21 | (2.07) | 10.67 | |
| BP | BP PLC ADR | 0.02 | 8 per month | 1.74 | 0.07 | 2.42 | (3.37) | 8.04 | |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | (1.36) | 8 per month | 1.59 | 0.07 | 3.34 | (2.78) | 7.95 | |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA ADR | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.03 | 2.86 | (3.01) | 7.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for ConocoPhillips
For every potential investor in ConocoPhillips, whether a beginner or expert, ConocoPhillips' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ConocoPhillips Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ConocoPhillips. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ConocoPhillips' price trends.ConocoPhillips Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ConocoPhillips stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ConocoPhillips could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ConocoPhillips by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ConocoPhillips Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ConocoPhillips stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ConocoPhillips shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ConocoPhillips stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ConocoPhillips entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ConocoPhillips Risk Indicators
The analysis of ConocoPhillips' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ConocoPhillips' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting conocophillips stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Variance | 3.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.72) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ConocoPhillips
The number of cover stories for ConocoPhillips depends on current market conditions and ConocoPhillips' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ConocoPhillips is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ConocoPhillips' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ConocoPhillips Short Properties
ConocoPhillips' future price predictability will typically decrease when ConocoPhillips' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ConocoPhillips often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ConocoPhillips' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConocoPhillips' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.1 B |
Additional Tools for ConocoPhillips Stock Analysis
When running ConocoPhillips' price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.