Cenovus Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.57
| CVE Stock | USD 20.57 0.85 4.31% |
Closest to current price Cenovus long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
Cenovus Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 20.57
The tendency of Cenovus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 20.57 | 90 days | 20.57 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cenovus Energy to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cenovus Energy probability density function shows the probability of Cenovus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Cenovus Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cenovus Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cenovus Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cenovus Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cenovus Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cenovus Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cenovus Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cenovus Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cenovus Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Cenovus Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cenovus Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cenovus Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 29.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 31st of December 2025 Cenovus Energy paid $ 0.1427 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Cenovus Energy Reaches New 52-Week High Should You Buy |
Cenovus Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cenovus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cenovus Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cenovus Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.1 B |
Cenovus Energy Technical Analysis
Cenovus Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cenovus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cenovus Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cenovus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cenovus Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Cenovus Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cenovus Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cenovus Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cenovus Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cenovus Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cenovus Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 29.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 31st of December 2025 Cenovus Energy paid $ 0.1427 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Cenovus Energy Reaches New 52-Week High Should You Buy |
Check out Cenovus Energy Analysis, Cenovus Energy Valuation, Cenovus Energy Correlation, Cenovus Energy Hype Analysis, Cenovus Energy Volatility, Cenovus Energy Price History as well as Cenovus Energy Performance. For information on how to trade Cenovus Stock refer to our How to Trade Cenovus Stock guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Will Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector continue expanding? Could Cenovus diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cenovus Energy. Projected growth potential of Cenovus fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Cenovus Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.715 | Dividend Share 0.76 | Earnings Share 1.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Understanding Cenovus Energy requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Cenovus's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Cenovus Energy's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Cenovus Energy's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Cenovus Energy's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Cenovus Energy should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Cenovus Energy's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.