Cenovus Energy Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CVE Stock | USD 15.84 0.35 2.16% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cenovus Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 15.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.61. Cenovus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cenovus Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Cenovus Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cenovus Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Cenovus |
Cenovus Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cenovus Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 15.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cenovus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cenovus Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cenovus Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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Cenovus Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cenovus Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cenovus Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.02 and 17.66, respectively. We have considered Cenovus Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cenovus Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cenovus Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7698 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0418 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2395 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.61 |
Predictive Modules for Cenovus Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cenovus Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cenovus Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Cenovus Energy
For every potential investor in Cenovus, whether a beginner or expert, Cenovus Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cenovus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cenovus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cenovus Energy's price trends.Cenovus Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cenovus Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cenovus Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cenovus Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cenovus Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cenovus Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cenovus Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Cenovus Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cenovus Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cenovus Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cenovus Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cenovus Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 314135.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.66) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.35) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.35) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.14 |
Cenovus Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cenovus Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cenovus Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cenovus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Variance | 3.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Cenovus Energy is a strong investment it is important to analyze Cenovus Energy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Cenovus Energy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Cenovus Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cenovus Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Cenovus Stock refer to our How to Trade Cenovus Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cenovus Energy. If investors know Cenovus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cenovus Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.57) | Dividend Share 0.775 | Earnings Share 1.42 | Revenue Per Share 29.87 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
The market value of Cenovus Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cenovus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cenovus Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cenovus Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cenovus Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cenovus Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cenovus Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cenovus Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cenovus Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.