Evans Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 37.30
| EVBN Stock | USD 44.41 0.17 0.38% |
Evans |
Evans Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 37.30
The tendency of Evans Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 37.30 or more in 90 days |
| 44.41 | 90 days | 37.30 | about 18.91 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Evans Bancorp to drop to $ 37.30 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.91 (This Evans Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Evans Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Evans Bancorp price to stay between $ 37.30 and its current price of $44.41 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.78 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.64 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Evans Bancorp will likely underperform. Additionally Evans Bancorp has an alpha of 0.2401, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Evans Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Evans Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evans Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evans Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Evans Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Evans Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Evans Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Evans Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Evans Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Evans Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Evans Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Evans Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 55.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 10th of October 2024 Evans Bancorp paid $ 0.66 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1320 shares by John Connerton of Evans Bancorp at 44.92 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Evans Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Evans Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Evans Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evans Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.5 M |
Evans Bancorp Technical Analysis
Evans Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Evans Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Evans Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Evans Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Evans Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Evans Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Evans Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Evans Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Evans Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Evans Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Evans Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Evans Bancorp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 55.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 10th of October 2024 Evans Bancorp paid $ 0.66 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 1320 shares by John Connerton of Evans Bancorp at 44.92 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Evans Bancorp Backtesting, Evans Bancorp Valuation, Evans Bancorp Correlation, Evans Bancorp Hype Analysis, Evans Bancorp Volatility, Evans Bancorp History as well as Evans Bancorp Performance. To learn how to invest in Evans Stock, please use our How to Invest in Evans Bancorp guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evans Bancorp. If investors know Evans will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evans Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Dividend Share 1.32 | Earnings Share 3.35 | Revenue Per Share 14.907 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.1) |
The market value of Evans Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evans that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evans Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evans Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evans Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evans Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evans Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Evans Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evans Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.