Fastenal Company Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 77.91
| FAST Stock | USD 82.67 0.89 1.07% |
Closest to current price Fastenal long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Fastenal |
Fastenal Target Price Odds to finish below 77.91
The tendency of Fastenal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 77.91 or more in 90 days |
| 82.67 | 90 days | 77.91 | about 68.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fastenal to drop to $ 77.91 or more in 90 days from now is about 68.96 (This Fastenal Company probability density function shows the probability of Fastenal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fastenal price to stay between $ 77.91 and its current price of $82.67 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.14 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.34 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Fastenal will likely underperform. Additionally Fastenal Company has an alpha of 0.1669, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Fastenal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Fastenal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fastenal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fastenal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fastenal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fastenal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fastenal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fastenal Company, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fastenal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Fastenal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fastenal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fastenal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 22nd of November 2024 Fastenal paid $ 0.39 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Harvest Fund Management Co. Ltd Grows Stock Position in Fastenal |
Fastenal Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fastenal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fastenal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fastenal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 573 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 221.3 M |
Fastenal Technical Analysis
Fastenal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fastenal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fastenal Company. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fastenal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fastenal Predictive Forecast Models
Fastenal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fastenal's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fastenal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Fastenal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Fastenal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fastenal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 22nd of November 2024 Fastenal paid $ 0.39 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Harvest Fund Management Co. Ltd Grows Stock Position in Fastenal |
Additional Tools for Fastenal Stock Analysis
When running Fastenal's price analysis, check to measure Fastenal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fastenal is operating at the current time. Most of Fastenal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fastenal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fastenal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fastenal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.