Fastenal Company Stock Market Outlook
| FAST Stock | USD 46.41 0.87 1.91% |
Slightly above 57% of all Fastenal's private investors are looking to take a long position. The analysis of overall sentiment of trading Fastenal Company stock suggests that some investors are interested at this time. Fastenal's investing sentiment can be driven by a variety of factors including economic data, Fastenal's earnings reports, geopolitical events, and overall market trends.
Comfort Level 57
Interested
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use Fastenal's input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward Fastenal Company.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBullish | Insider SentimentDisposing |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your complete indifference towards market risk, our recommendation regarding Fastenal Company is 'Strong Buy'. A buy or sell recommendation is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Fastenal Company given historical horizon and risk tolerance. When we issue a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Fastenal Company, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Execute Fastenal Advice
The Fastenal recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Fastenal Company. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Fastenal Company or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Fastenal's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Tiny | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon Fastenal Company has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1035, Jensen Alpha of 0.1197, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0668, Sortino Ratio of 0.0893 and Treynor Ratio of 0.1679Our investment recommendation tool can be used to complement Fastenal trade advice provided by experts. It analyzes the company's potential to grow against your specific risk preferences and investment horizon. To make sure Fastenal is not overpriced, please confirm all Fastenal fundamentals, including its cash flow from operations, working capital, and the relationship between the cash per share and number of employees . Given that Fastenal has a price to earning of 28.13 X, we urge you to verify Fastenal Company market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.
Fastenal Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Fastenal has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Rhumbline Advisers Has 121.90 Million Stake in Fastenal Company FAST |
Fastenal Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Fastenal's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Fastenal's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Fastenal daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Fastenal Company price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Fastenal returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for Fastenal.
| Mean Return | 0.20 | Value At Risk | -2.23 | Potential Upside | 3.32 | Standard Deviation | 1.61 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Fastenal historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Fastenal Stock Institutional Investors
The Fastenal's institutional investors refer to entities that pool money to purchase Fastenal's securities or originate loans. These institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds.
| Shares | Baird Financial Group, Inc. | 2025-06-30 | 14.4 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2025-06-30 | 13.9 M | Ubs Asset Mgmt Americas Inc | 2025-06-30 | 13.2 M | Principal Financial Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 13.1 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 11.8 M | Ubs Group Ag | 2025-06-30 | 10 M | Envestnet Asset Management Inc | 2025-06-30 | 9.7 M | Cantillon Capital Management Llc | 2025-06-30 | 9.3 M | Legal & General Group Plc | 2025-06-30 | 9.2 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 149.2 M | Blackrock Inc | 2025-06-30 | 98.5 M |
Fastenal Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (189.5M) | (198M) | 189.1M | (133.9M) | (89.2M) | (84.7M) | |
| Change In Cash | (9.5M) | (6.1M) | (8.8M) | 34.5M | 21M | 22.1M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 613.5M | 767.2M | 1.3B | 946.8M | 1.1B | 1.1B | |
| Depreciation | 170.7M | 176.6M | 177.3M | 175.4M | 179.2M | 188.2M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 156.6M | 173.8M | 172.8M | 226.5M | 245.3M | 257.6M | |
| Net Income | 925M | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.3B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 236.2M | 230.1M | 221.3M | 255.8M | 276.8M | 290.6M | |
| Dividends Paid | 643.7M | 711.3M | 1.0B | 893.3M | 1.0B | 1.1B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 1.4M | (700K) | (2.1M) | (2.5M) | (385.2M) | (365.9M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 25M | 14.7M | (6.7M) | 1.6M | 1.8M | 1.7M | |
| Investments | (148.5M) | (163M) | (169.6M) | (214.5M) | (193.1M) | (183.4M) | |
| Change Receivables | (30.4M) | (29.7M) | (135.2M) | (119.8M) | (107.8M) | (102.4M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (15M) | 165M | (295M) | (60M) | (75M) | (71.3M) |
Fastenal Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Fastenal or Trading Companies & Distributors sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Fastenal's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Fastenal stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Fastenal Volatility Alert
Fastenal Company has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.49 and kurtosis of 0.37. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Fastenal's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Fastenal's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Fastenal Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Fastenal's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Fastenal's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Fastenal and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Fastenal or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Fastenal's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fastenal by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Fastenal to competition |
| Fundamentals | Fastenal | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.33 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.21 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.15 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.19 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 53.45 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.15 B | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.17 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 87.91 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 34.67 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 28.13 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 13.51 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 6.50 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 8.2 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 3.69 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.66 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 1.26 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 231.5 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.40 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 441.9 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.26 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.98 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 3.44 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.3 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.79 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.09 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 3.37 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 44.68 | |
| Number Of Employees | 21.6 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.89 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 53.29 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 5.05 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 3.87 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 2.76 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Quarshie Irene Ayeley of 15258 shares of Fastenal at 41.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Fastenal Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Fastenal . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Fastenal Target Price Consensus
Fastenal target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Fastenal's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
| 17 | Buy |
Most Fastenal analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand Fastenal stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of Fastenal, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice Exposure ValuationFastenal Target Price Projection
Fastenal's current and average target prices are 46.41 and 44.68, respectively. The current price of Fastenal is the price at which Fastenal Company is currently trading. On the other hand, Fastenal's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.Current Price
Fastenal Market Quote on 15th of February 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Fastenal Target Price
Fastenal Analyst Ratings
Fastenal's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Fastenal stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Fastenal's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Fastenal's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
About Fastenal Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Fastenal Company? Buying financial instruments such as Fastenal Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Fastenal in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Railroads Thematic Idea Now
Railroads
Companies involved in manufacturing and maintenance of freight railroads and passenger trains as well as providing railroad services to public. The Railroads theme has 45 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Railroads Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Additional Tools for Fastenal Stock Analysis
When running Fastenal's price analysis, check to measure Fastenal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fastenal is operating at the current time. Most of Fastenal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fastenal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fastenal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fastenal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.