Fastenal Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FAST Stock | USD 47.73 0.40 0.85% |
Fastenal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Fastenal's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.138 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2955 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.2234 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3441 | Wall Street Target Price 44.6846 |
Using Fastenal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fastenal Company from the perspective of Fastenal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fastenal using Fastenal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fastenal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fastenal's stock price.
Fastenal Short Interest
An investor who is long Fastenal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Fastenal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Fastenal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 43.6517 | Short Percent 0.0314 | Short Ratio 3.95 | Shares Short Prior Month 31.4 M | 50 Day MA 42.2778 |
Fastenal Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fastenal Company on the next trading day is expected to be 47.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.89.Fastenal Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Fastenal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Fastenal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fastenal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fastenal Company. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Fastenal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Fastenal.
Fastenal Implied Volatility | 0.33 |
Fastenal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fastenal Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fastenal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fastenal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fastenal's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fastenal Company on the next trading day is expected to be 47.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.89. Fastenal after-hype prediction price | USD 46.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fastenal to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fastenal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fastenal Company will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0206% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Fastenal trading at USD 47.73, that is roughly USD 0.009844 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fastenal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fastenal Company options at the current volatility level of 0.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Fastenal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fastenal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fastenal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fastenal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fastenal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fastenal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fastenal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fastenal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fastenal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fastenal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fastenal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fastenal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fastenal Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fastenal Company on the next trading day is expected to be 47.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fastenal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fastenal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fastenal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fastenal | Fastenal Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Fastenal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fastenal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fastenal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.17 and 49.29, respectively. We have considered Fastenal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fastenal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fastenal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3059 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1084 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5064 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.89 |
Predictive Modules for Fastenal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fastenal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fastenal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fastenal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fastenal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fastenal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fastenal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fastenal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fastenal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fastenal's historical news coverage. Fastenal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.70 and 47.78, respectively. We have considered Fastenal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fastenal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fastenal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fastenal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fastenal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fastenal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fastenal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.56 | 1.49 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.73 | 46.24 | 3.12 |
|
Fastenal Hype Timeline
Fastenal is currently traded for 47.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Fastenal is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 46.24. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 27.27%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Fastenal is about 26000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.73. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 29th of January 2026. Fastenal had 2:1 split on the 22nd of May 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fastenal to cross-verify your projections.Fastenal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fastenal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fastenal's future price movements. Getting to know how Fastenal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fastenal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FERG | Ferguson Plc | (11.41) | 9 per month | 2.03 | 0.01 | 3.03 | (2.56) | 11.07 | |
| GWW | WW Grainger | (11.41) | 8 per month | 0.86 | 0.17 | 3.46 | (1.69) | 7.07 | |
| AME | Ametek Inc | 2.67 | 10 per month | 0.56 | 0.14 | 1.87 | (1.16) | 4.58 | |
| ROP | Roper Technologies | 8.68 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.91 | (2.42) | 12.33 | |
| CARR | Carrier Global Corp | 0.16 | 9 per month | 1.10 | 0.05 | 4.09 | (1.94) | 6.58 | |
| FER | Ferrovial SE | 1.98 | 9 per month | 0.82 | 0.09 | 2.85 | (1.93) | 6.80 | |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation | 7.08 | 8 per month | 1.60 | 0.07 | 2.73 | (2.77) | 10.14 | |
| PCAR | PACCAR Inc | 0.08 | 11 per month | 0.62 | 0.22 | 3.68 | (1.52) | 7.16 | |
| XYL | Xylem Inc | 3.24 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.77 | (2.11) | 8.37 | |
| SYM | Symbotic | (1.01) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.37 | (10.11) | 60.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fastenal
For every potential investor in Fastenal, whether a beginner or expert, Fastenal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fastenal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fastenal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fastenal's price trends.Fastenal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fastenal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fastenal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fastenal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fastenal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fastenal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fastenal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fastenal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fastenal Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 112806.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4762 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 47.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 47.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.11 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.4 |
Fastenal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fastenal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fastenal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fastenal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fastenal
The number of cover stories for Fastenal depends on current market conditions and Fastenal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fastenal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fastenal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Fastenal Short Properties
Fastenal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fastenal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fastenal Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fastenal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fastenal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 276.8 M |
Additional Tools for Fastenal Stock Analysis
When running Fastenal's price analysis, check to measure Fastenal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fastenal is operating at the current time. Most of Fastenal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fastenal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fastenal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fastenal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.