FirstGroup Plc (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.82
| FGR Stock | EUR 1.82 0.02 1.11% |
FirstGroup |
FirstGroup Plc Target Price Odds to finish over 1.82
The tendency of FirstGroup Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 1.82 | 90 days | 1.82 | about 12.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FirstGroup Plc to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 12.15 (This FirstGroup plc probability density function shows the probability of FirstGroup Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon FirstGroup Plc has a beta of 0.75. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, FirstGroup Plc average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding FirstGroup plc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally FirstGroup plc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. FirstGroup Plc Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FirstGroup Plc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FirstGroup plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FirstGroup Plc Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FirstGroup Plc is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FirstGroup Plc's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FirstGroup plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FirstGroup Plc within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
FirstGroup Plc Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FirstGroup Plc for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FirstGroup plc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FirstGroup plc may become a speculative penny stock | |
| FirstGroup plc has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
FirstGroup Plc Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FirstGroup Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FirstGroup Plc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FirstGroup Plc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 750.1 M |
FirstGroup Plc Technical Analysis
FirstGroup Plc's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FirstGroup Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FirstGroup plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing FirstGroup Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FirstGroup Plc Predictive Forecast Models
FirstGroup Plc's time-series forecasting models is one of many FirstGroup Plc's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FirstGroup Plc's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FirstGroup plc
Checking the ongoing alerts about FirstGroup Plc for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FirstGroup plc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FirstGroup plc may become a speculative penny stock | |
| FirstGroup plc has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in FirstGroup Stock
FirstGroup Plc financial ratios help investors to determine whether FirstGroup Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FirstGroup with respect to the benefits of owning FirstGroup Plc security.